ISLAMABAD: Iranian military sources have issued a chilling warning that Tehran and its Yemen-based allies could seal the Bab al-Mandab Strait if Washington launches any ground assault.

A move that would instantly slash Saudi Arabia’s oil exports to zero and ignite a dangerous chain reaction across the Gulf.

The threat, relayed through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-linked Tasnim News Agency, directly ties any US provocation in the Persian Gulf to a potential blockade of the Red Sea chokepoint, sending fresh shockwaves not only through Riyadh but also into Islamabad.

With the Strait of Hormuz already paralysed by earlier strikes, Saudi Arabia has rerouted nearly all its crude through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, making the Bab al-Mandab its sole remaining lifeline.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration shows the strait carried 4.2 million barrels of oil per day in the first half of 2025, accounting for roughly six percent of global seaborne petroleum trade.

Shipping trackers from Kpler and Reuters reveal Saudi Yanbu loadings have surged dramatically to nearly four million barrels per day in recent weeks, up from just 770,000 barrels daily earlier this year, with analysts forecasting peaks of five million barrels daily by month-end as the kingdom maxes out its East-West pipeline’s seven-million-barrel capacity.

A full Iranian-orchestrated closure would therefore drive Riyadh’s overall crude shipments toward zero, triggering an immediate and catastrophic revenue collapse for the world’s largest oil exporter.

Energy analysts warn this scenario would provoke an urgent Saudi response, with Riyadh potentially launching direct strikes or proxy operations against Iranian targets to reopen the waterway and protect its economic survival.

Such retaliation could rapidly escalate into full-scale regional war, drawing in multiple actors and destabilising energy markets already reeling from record volatility.

Pakistan now finds itself squarely in the crosshairs of this unfolding crisis due to the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement signed with Saudi Arabia on 17 September 2025 at Al-Yamamah Palace in Riyadh.

The pact, formalised by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, commits both nations to treat any aggression against one as aggression against both, institutionalising decades of military cooperation that already includes 1,500 to 2,000 Pakistani troops stationed in the kingdom and training programmes for thousands of Saudi personnel.

Pakistani defence analysts and local media reports claim Islamabad would be obligated to provide direct support to Riyadh under the agreement, potentially including troop deployments, logistical aid or even broader military assistance if Saudi Arabia moves against Iran.

This binding commitment places Pakistan in an extraordinarily precarious position, risking direct entanglement in a Middle East conflict at a time when its own economy remains fragile.

Saudi Arabia remains one of Pakistan’s largest sources of foreign remittances, contributing $685.5 million in February 2026 alone and forming a critical pillar of the country’s record $38.3 billion inflows for fiscal year 2024-25.

Any escalation threatening Saudi stability could disrupt these flows, slash oil imports on deferred payment terms and imperil the livelihoods of millions of Pakistani workers in the kingdom.

Regional observers note that the Iranian threat, already amplified by Houthi control over Yemen’s Red Sea coast and their proven record of missile and drone strikes, carries the potential to compound global oil disruptions to as much as 25 percent of seaborne trade when combined with the Hormuz shutdown.

International outlets including Xinhua and Iran International have highlighted the seriousness of Tehran’s statement, while Pakistani commentators warn that the defence pact transforms what was once a distant Gulf crisis into a direct national security dilemma for Islamabad.

As tensions mount, the Bab al-Mandab flashpoint underscores the fragile interdependence of energy routes, defence alliances and economic lifelines stretching from the Arabian Peninsula to South Asia.

The prospect of simultaneous chokepoint closures has insurers raising premiums and tanker operators rerouting vessels, further inflating costs for global consumers already facing energy price shocks.

For Pakistan, the stakes extend beyond diplomacy to survival, as any Saudi call to arms under the 2025 pact could force Islamabad into choices with profound implications for regional stability and domestic security.