Follow
WhatsApp

Shifting alliances: Pakistan s strategic tilt towards Russia, China

Shifting alliances: Pakistan s strategic tilt towards Russia, China

ISLAMABAD — As Pakistan navigates its troubled relationship with the UnitedStates and scrambles to avoid being blacklisted for doing too little, toolate to stop terror funding, regional alliances are shifting and analystsponder whether a cozier relationship with countries like Russia willcomplicate efforts to move toward peace in neighboring Afghanistan.

Russia, analysts say, is motivated by fears of a growing presence ofIslamic State militants in neighboring Afghanistan and has warmed up toPakistan as well as to Taliban insurgents battling the upstart IslamicState group affiliate known as Khorasan Province, the ancient name of anarea that once included parts of Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia.

In the latest move to strengthen ties, Russia last week named an honoraryconsul to Pakistan’s Khyber Pukhtunkhwa Province, which borders Nangarharprovince in eastern Afghanistan, where IS has established its headquarters.The IS is also present in northern Afghanistan’s border regions withCentral Asia, causing further consternation in Moscow.

Russia’s honorary consul, Mohammad Arsallah Khan, who belongs to a powerfulbusiness family in Pakistan’s northwest, said economic development is thebest weapon against extremism. To that end he said he will promoteincreased commerce with Pakistan’s neighbors, including Russia, whichcurrently accounts for barely $500 million in trade.

“I think this whole region is a bit of a mess, which I realize is one ofthe great understatements. Extremists have been taken lightly before and weare where we are because of that,” said Khan in an interview in thePakistani capital, Islamabad. Reflecting on his business-based strategy,Khan said, “when you can give people a way of earning a living, they willturn away from terrorism, away from extremism.”

The appointment reflects a stark turnaround in Pakistan’s historicalrelationship with Russia.

In the 1980s, Pakistan and the U.S. were united against Russia as theSoviet Union sent 150,000 soldiers into Afghanistan to prop up itscommunist ally in the Afghan capital, Kabul. At the time, Pakistan, withU.S. backing, used Peshawar as a staging arena to arm and deploy Islamicinsurgents, referred to as mujahedeen — or as President Ronald Reagan oftencalled them, “freedom fighters” — to wage war on Russia. After 10 years,Russia failed to win the war and on Feb. 15, 1989, left Afghanistan in anegotiated exit.

For some, Russia’s cozying up to Pakistan is a bit of a “poke in the eye”to the U.S., still embroiled in the Afghan conflict that is now in its 17thyear and is Washington’s longest war, costing more than $122 billion,according to its own special Inspector General on Afghan Reconstruction.

Still, Petr Topychkanov, a senior researcher at the Stockholm InternationalPeace Research Institute, said Russia worries about the U.S. presence inAfghanistan.

“Russia is concerned about the long-term presence of the U.S. and itsallies in Afghanistan, and therefore it’s in Russia’s long-term intereststo have an inside view of the situation in Afghanistan,” he said, sayingthat Pakistan provides the viewing platform.

Daniel Markey, senior research professor in international relations atJohn’s Hopkins University, said Russian relations with Pakistan aim tosolve two problems for Moscow. First, to blunt the threat of IS fromAfghanistan. Second, to undermine U.S. influence, he said.

“The point is that Russia and Pakistan probably have more in common withrespect to the war in Afghanistan than the United States has with either __and this is a real turnaround from prior history.”

Last week Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Washington offailing to go after the Islamic State group in Afghanistan.

In response, Washington’s senior diplomat for South Asia, Alice Wells,accused Russia of ignoring anti-IS offensives launched by U.S. and Afghanforces in eastern Afghanistan, while at the same time pursuing them in newhavens, particularly in northern Afghanistan.

Wells suggested Russia “should unequivocally support the Afghangovernment,” if it wants to end the conflict in Afghanistan, a thinlyveiled reference to allegations of Russian support for the Taliban.

The linchpin in Washington’s Afghan strategy is to put pressure on Pakistanto close safe havens used by Taliban fighters, most notably the Haqqaninetwork, blamed for the more brazen and deadly attacks on Kabul.

Pakistan denies organized camps exist on its territory, though it saysinsurgents move throughout the country among the Afghan refugee populationof 1.5 million. Pakistan also assails Afghanistan for allowinganti-Pakistan militants to have territory from which they plot and carryout attacks against Pakistan.

Despite closer ties with Russia and a heavily invested China, for Pakistaneven a bad relationship with the U.S. is better than no relationship atall, said Andrew Wilder, Asia programs vice president at the U.S. Instituteof Peace.

“Pakistan losing the U.S. as a strategic partner due to Pakistan’sAfghanistan policy, and ending up having to rely solely on China, is not aforeign policy success story for Pakistan – it’s a major foreign policyfailure,” he said. “Pakistan’s relationship with the U.S., even in itscurrent weakened state, is still far more important in economic, diplomaticand security terms for Pakistan than its relationship with Russia.”

Although Pakistan was not mentioned in the final communique that followedlast week’s Financial Action Task Force on terror funding, a motion byWashington to have Pakistan put on a global watch list prompted the taskforce to demand that Islamabad prove it is doing enough to curb terrorfinancing by the time they meet again in June. Most analysts said thedeadline was an indication that even its deep friendship with China was notenough to counter U.S. pressure.

“We shouldn’t overstate how much Beijing and Moscow can compensate for U.S.aid cuts and sanctions,” said Michael Kugelman, Asia Program deputydirector at the U.S.-based Wilson Center. “China is not a charity and doesnot provide assistance on demand; it only provides support — including tokey allies like Pakistan — when it serves its interests. Additionally, theextent of Russian support for Pakistan to this point is unclear.” -Agencies

___