Istanbul – After an over half century accession bid, Turkey and theEuropean Union are moving into a new period of relations where tightercooperation in specific areas will be prioritised over Ankara’s drive forfull membership, analysts say.
Ties between Turkey and the EU reached a low point in 2017 with themembership process grinding to a halt and President Recep Tayyip Erdoganaccusing some key members, including Germany, of behaviour reminiscent ofthe Nazis.
But Erdogan has begun 2018 in a different spirit, bounding off in the firstweek of January on a visit to Paris and his foreign minister making a keyfence-mending trip to Germany.
Meanwhile, EU leaders have urged a new spirit of realism, with FrenchPresident Emmanuel Macron saying during Erdogan’s January 5 trip it wastime to end the “hypocrisy” that progress could be made on Turkishmembership.
“There is an understanding on both sides that the accession process is deadand won’t go anywhere soon,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at theEuropean Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
“So we are essentially talking about a new format and a more transactionalrelationship with European member states,” she told AFP, adding this wouldmean more emphasis on trade.
“Ankara sees this as such and entertains no illusions about revitalisingthe accession process,” she added.
– ‘Downsizing the relationship’ –
The July 2016 failed coup marked a watershed moment in the history ofTurkey-EU relations, with Ankara accusing the bloc of failing to showsolidarity and Brussels sounding alarm over the mass post-coup crackdown.
Erdogan has repeatedly huffed and puffed over the length of Turkey’s EUbid, complaining that Ankara has been “kept waiting at the door” for 50years as it watched ex-Communist states being let in without fuss.
Accession talks began in October 2005. Out of the total of 35 chaptersneeded to be closed to join the EU, 16 have been opened with just oneclosed. No new chapter has been opened since financial and budgetaryprovisions was opened in June 2016.
“It’s clear that we must move away from this hypocrisy of thinking anatural progression towards the opening of new chapters is possible whenthis is not true,” Macron said after his talks with Erdogan.
Bulgarian Foreign Minister Ekaterina Zaharieva, whose country holds the EUpresidency, said Friday it was better to have a “realistic” discussion withTurkey about membership without “hiding the problems”.
Marc Pierini, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and a former EUambassador to Turkey, said Ankara “by its own choices” was no longermeeting the necessary criteria, especially on rule of law, in the wake ofthe post-coup crackdown.
“Essentially what we are witnessing now is the downsizing of therelationship from one between political allies to one between partnerscooperating in a number of fields such as counter-terrorism, trade andrefugees,” he told AFP.
Hurriyet daily columnist Sedat Ergin wrote Friday Macron’s words signalleda “paradigm change” in Turkey’s relationship with the EU which, for theFrench leader, would now be defined “cooperation in pursuit of commongoals” rather than enlargement.
“Just a name has not been given to this new format of cooperation,” he said.
Incentives for Turkey without full membership include visa liberalisationand an upgrading of the existing customs union.
But EU Affairs Minister Omer Celik said Ankara would perceive an offer of aso-called “privileged partnership” as an insult, saying Turkey would neveraccept a “second class status”.
– ‘Warming up to Europe’ –
Elsewhere, Turkey’s hopes of a strong relationship with US President DonaldTrump have been scuppered by rows including the arming of Syrian Kurds anda New York court case.
Meanwhile Ankara is aware its current pragmatic partnerships with Turkey’shistoric Ottoman rivals Iran and Russia are precarious while the rise ofCrown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia has reshuffled the cardsin the Gulf region.
For all the rows of the last year, the EU is still by far Turkey’s largesttrading partner, while Turkey is the EU’s fourth largest export market andfifth largest provider of imports.
The meeting between Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Germancounterpart Sigmar Gabriel at least changed the mood music in a bumpyrelationship, with Berlin’s top diplomat hosting his guest in his folksyLower Saxon hometown and treating him to a cup of home-brewed Turkish tea.
Gabriel had late December suggested a deal for Britain’s relationship withthe EU after Brexit could be a model for the future relationship of Turkeywith the bloc.
“Turkey is warming up to Europe and there is a deliberate effort fromleaders in Ankara to distance themselves from the acerbic language andaccusations,” said Aydintasbas. – AFP