WASHINGTON: The relations between Pakistan and United States aredeteriorating with every passing day and now the intelligence reports bythe US agencies have further highlighted the fact.
However astonishingly the issue of the Taliban militants may be just onepoint but there are more serious concerns of US agencies for Pakistan.
Drawing closer to China, Military Power and the Nuclear Arsenals are otherimportant points for the cause of concern for US.
Seventeen US intelligence agencies have warned Congress that Pakistan willcontinue to slip out of America’s influence and into China’s orbit in 2019,and will become a threat to Washington’s interests in the South Asianregion.
The review is part of an annual report that Director of US NationalIntelligence Daniel R. Coats presented to the Senate Intelligence Committeeon Tuesday, underlining worldwide threat assessment of the Americanintelligence community.
The 17 agencies that jointly produced this report include CentralIntelligence Agency, Defence Intelligence Agency, Federal Bureau ofInvestigation and National Security Agency.
In their report on Pakistan, the agencies warned that the country willcontinue to threaten US interests by “deploying new nuclear weaponscapabilities, maintaining its ties to militants, restrictingcounterterrorism cooperation, and drawing closer to China”.
The report claimed that Islamabad-backed militant groups will continue totake advantage of their alleged safe haven in Pakistan to “plan and conductattacks in India and Afghanistan, including against US interests”.
In a brief assessment of Islamabad’s nuclear programme, US intelligenceagencies informed Congress that Pakistan continues to produce nuclearweapons and develop new types, including short-range tactical weapons,sea-based cruise missiles, air-launched cruise missiles, and longer-rangeballistic missiles.
“These new types of nuclear weapons will introduce new risks for escalationdynamics and security in the region,” the report added.
US agencies also expect relations between India and Pakistan to remaintense, with continued violence on the Line of Control and “the risk ofescalation if there is another high-profile terrorist attack in India or anuptick in violence on the Line of Control”.
The agencies informed Congress that in 2019, relations between India andChina will remain tense and will possibly deteriorate further, despite thenegotiated settlement to their three-month border standoff in August.
This “elevates the risk of unintentional escalation”, the report added.
The US intelligence community expects the overall situation in Afghanistanto “deteriorate modestly” this year in the face of persistent politicalinstability, sustained attacks by the Taliban-led insurgency, unsteadyAfghan National Security Forces (ANSF) performance, and chronic financialshortfalls.
The agencies warned that the National Unity government in Kabul “probablywill struggle” to hold long-delayed parliamentary elections, currentlyscheduled for July 2018, and to prepare for a presidential election in 2019.
“The ANSF probably will maintain control of most major population centreswith coalition force support, but the intensity and geographic scope ofTaliban activities will put those centres under continued strain,” theagencies assessed.
The agencies believe that Afghanistan’s economic growth will stagnate ataround 2.5 per cent per year, and Kabul will remain reliant oninternational donors for the great majority of its funding well beyond 2018.