WASHINGTON – United States dared to permit itself renewed hope Thursdaythat the longest war in its history may be closer to a negotiatedsettlement, after Afghan-led talks went better than expected.
After 17 years of guerrilla conflict and several diplomatic false starts,American officials take nothing for granted — and they still expect thespring thaw to herald more fierce fighting.
But they were pleased, both publicly and privately, by this week’sinternational conference in Kabul, which they see as a step towards talksbetween President Ashraf Ghani’s government and the Taliban.
Ghani played his role to a tee, holding out his hand to the Taliban andsuggesting that if they join talks they could be recognized as a politicalparty with a legitimate role in Afghanistan’s future.
Washington, even under war-skeptic President Donald Trump, will not seek aunilateral deal with the Taliban to extricate itself from a long,inconclusive conflict, but will instead encourage an Afghan dialogue.
And, just as US policy makers have concluded the still improving US-backedAfghan military can not win a decisive victory, they now believe theTaliban must understand it will never retake Kabul.
Much could yet go wrong, and US officials are keen to insist that theirremaining forces in Afghanistan will continue to support Kabul’s troops andtarget extremists until conditions are ripe for peace.
But — in Kabul and in Washington — they are permitting themselves ameasure of satisfaction that Trump’s vaunted South Asian strategy has begunto gain traction with Kabul and regional players.
US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert made it clear thatWashington is glad that Ghani used to conference to signal to the absentTaliban that “there are no preconditions for peace.”
Since a US-led intervention in Afghanistan in the aftermath of theSeptember 11, 2001 attacks overthrew the Taliban regime, the Islamist grouphas been under pressure to renounce its hardline ideals.
But Ghani and US officials now accept that the Taliban can enter peacetalks without first accepting the country’s new democratic constitution andits protections for women and minority groups.
The hope is that the group will definitively split from internationallyoriented extremists like Al-Qaeda and find a role in a new Afghanistan,with an evolving constitution — as the “end condition” of talks.
“Along with that there has always been the understanding, even theexpectation, that constitutions are living documents,” one senior USofficial told AFP, predicting that compromises would be made.
– Foreign backer –
US officials were also pleased that, during the two-day meeting with worldand regional powers in Kabul, President Ghani was restrained in hiscriticism of Pakistan, the Taliban’s key foreign backer.
Washington shares Kabul’s intense annoyance at Pakistan’s continued supportfor the Afghan Taliban, which is based in the Pakistani city of Quetta andreceives backing from elements of the military.
But Pakistan is not going away, and will continue to defend what it sees asits interests in the region against its rival India. Some of Ghani’sprevious angry speeches have antagonized Islamabad.
Under Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama, US commandos infiltrated Pakistanto kill Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.
Now, under Trump, Washington has delayed billions of dollars in aid andadvanced equipment for the Pakistani military in order to underline itsanger at the continued support for hardline Islamist groups.
But the US also wants Kabul and all the regional parties to the dispute tosign up for the peace process, and they were heartened that the Kabul talkspassed without a major Afghan-Pakistan row.
The Taliban, of course, did not attend the Kabul talks — indeed theycondemned them — and instead issued a letter calling on the United Statesto negotiate directly with them an end to fighting.
– ‘Courageous stand’ –
For Washington, however, this is seen as posturing. There’s no question ofa unilateral deal to exclude the central government, and Trump has signedoff on an indefinite “conditions based” military presence.
The senior official — pointing to what US ambassador John Bass hailed asGhani’s “very courageous stand” — admitted that he and colleaguesfollowing the long conflict are prone to skepticism.
But he was clear: “This meeting exceeded expectations.” – APP /AFP