BRUSSELS – NATO leaders face a major threat to the credibility of theirmilitary alliance at their summit this week– not from traditional foeRussia, but from the head of their most powerful member, US PresidentDonald Trump.

The gathering at NATO headquarters in Brussels, days before Trump meets hisRussian counterpart Vladimir Putin, is shaping up to be the most difficultin years, analysts and officials told AFP.

Allies are braced for a barrage of invective from Trump for not spendingenough on defence, and are apprehensive that his often sceptical tone onthe alliance that has underpinned European security for 70 years might turninto outright hostility.

The 28 other NATO leaders fear a repeat of what happened at last month’s G7summit, which ended in disarray when Trump abruptly rejected the closingstatement.

“What Trump says will be decisive for the future of the alliance, but we donot know what he will say,” a diplomat from a NATO country said.

“It is a shadow that hangs like the sword of Damocles over the summit.”

Diplomats fear an acrimonious meeting could undermine efforts to show unityin the face of the growing threat on the alliance’s eastern flank –particularly with Trump set to meet Putin in Helsinki a few days later.

German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen on Friday told Bloomberg TVthat the summit must show unity, warning that “our opponents would bedelighted if there is a division in NATO”.

Trump’s own ambassador to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison made a similar plea forharmony during a call with reporters Thursday.——————————

*‘Schmucks’*——————————

But the mercurial tycoon set the stage for a fractious meeting by writingto around a dozen NATO allies to berate them for lagging on a 2014 pledgeto try to spend two percent of GDP on defence by 2024.

Currently only three European countries hit the two percent target, andwhile alliance officials are hopeful that four more will join the list bythe July 11-12 summit, it is unlikely to satisfy Trump.

He accuses European NATO allies of freeloading, telling a rally this weekthat they had treated the US like “schmucks”.

Trump has even called into question NATO’s principle of collective defence– under which an attack on one member draws a response from all — forallies he feels are not paying their dues.

NATO officials all the way up to Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg pointto increased military investment by the US in Europe since Trump tookoffice as evidence of Washington’s continuing commitment to the alliance.

But comments made by Trump have undercut this, most recently when he toldother leaders at the G7 that NATO was “as bad as NAFTA”, the North Americantrade deal he has threatened to tear up.

Unwavering support for NATO has been a basic tenet of US foreign policysince the alliance was founded in 1949, but as Trump’s emerging tradetariff war with Europe shows, the president has no qualms about upendingconventional thinking on major international issues.——————————

*Putin ‘will enjoy’ summit *——————————

Stoltenberg has stressed the alliance’s ability to overcome differences inthe past, but Tomas Valasek, director of the Carnegie Europe and formerSlovak ambassador to NATO, said the situation with Trump had alreadyundermined its ability to deter would-be aggressors.

“We’ve had violent falling outs over Libya, Iraq in 2003, but it’squalitatively different in that the biggest of the allies doesn’t just havedisagreements with us, but actually seems willing to walk away,” Valaseksaid.

“The deterrence has already been weakened.”

Tobias Bunde, the head of policy and analysis at the Munich SecurityConference, went even further telling AFP “whether NATO can survive hispresidency might very well be up to debate”.

Bunde said NATO would “very likely never be defeated by outside forces” solong as it keeps to shared democratic values.

“But this prerequisite is now undermined from within — by a couple ofilliberal governments in the Alliance, and now even by the US president.”

The tensions with Trump look all the more stark in the context of a summitthat will take important decisions to boost NATO’s ability to defend itselffrom the threat it sees from Russia.

They will sign off on two new military commands — one to protect Atlanticshipping lanes and one to coordinate troop movements in Europe — as wellas a plan to beef up NATO’s ability to mobilise forces quickly in the eventof a crisis.

But any divisions will overshadow these concrete steps — and play well inMoscow.

Thomas Carothers of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, saidPutin “will enjoy the NATO summit from the perspective that it embodiesfurther division and fragmentation.” – APP/AFP