ISLAMABAD – The Afghan conflict could overtake Syria as the deadliestconflict in the world this year, analysts say, as violence surges 17 yearsafter the US-led invasion.
The grim assessment contrasts sharply with the consistently upbeat publicview of the conflict from Nato’s Resolute Support mission in Kabul, andunderscores the growing sense of hopelessness in the war-torn country.
It suggests that US President Donald Trump’s much-vaunted strategy forAfghanistan is, like those of his predecessors, failing to move the needleon the battlefield, observers said, as a generation of Americans born after9/11 become old enough to enlist.
“The soaring casualties in Afghanistan and the potential endgame in sightin Syria… could leave Afghanistan as the world’s deadliest conflict,”said Johnny Walsh, an Afghanistan expert at the United States Institute ofPeace.
“Most years have become the new ‘most violent year’. This is continuallygetting worse.” The Syrian conflict — which began a decade afterAfghanistan’s — has claimed the lives of more than 15,000 people so farthis year, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Graeme Smith, a consultant for the International Crisis Group, told AFPsome indications “suggest the Afghan war is on track to inflict more than20,000 battle deaths in 2018” — including civilians and combatants.
“That could exceed the toll of any other conflict, possibly even the war inSyria,” he added. It would be a record high for Afghanistan, according tothe respected Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) in Sweden, which put thetotal number of deaths on all sides of the conflict at 19,694 in 2017.
Afghan civilian deaths have already hit a record 1,692 in the first sixmonths of 2018, a recent UN report showed. Interior ministry deputyspokesman Nasrat Rahimi estimated 300-400 “enemy fighters” were killedevery week, but would not provide figures for civilians or governmentforces.
Data for casualties suffered by Afghan security forces are not available tothe public after Washington last year agreed to Kabul’s request to classifythe numbers. Before the blackout, according to figures published by the USSpecial Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), therewere more than 5,000 each year.
Most analysts believe that number understates the reality on the ground.This year’s death toll for government forces could be “horrific”, Smithsaid. The total death toll has been rising steeply since 2014, UCDP figuresshow, the year Nato combat troops pulled out, leaving Afghan forces withthe responsibility for holding back the resurgent Taliban.
This year, the violence has been fanned by long-delayed parliamentaryelections scheduled for October 20 and renewed efforts to engage theTaliban, Afghanistan’s largest militant group, in peace talks.
The Taliban have made significant battlefield gains, and the smaller butpotent Islamic State group, which first emerged in the region in 2014, hasalso ramped up attacks.
The conflict has been further fuelled by other countries in the region,particularly neighbouring Pakistan, said retired Afghan general AtiqullahAmarkhil, who warned the US had failed to rein in its wayward ally, whichis widely accused of providing safe haven to Taliban leaders.
Despite the bloodshed, General John Nicholson, who until recently was thetop US and Nato commander in the country, insisted last month that Trump’sstrategy, which includes the deployment of thousands of additional USforces and increased air strikes, was working.
US Forces spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Pete Lupo told AFP: “US ForcesAfghanistan is committed to being open and telling the truth about thiswar.” More troops means more fighting and therefore more casualties, Walshtold AFP — but otherwise the military situation “remains generally astalemate”.
SIGAR data also suggests Trump’s plan has made little progress on thebattlefield. The Taliban and other insurgents control or influence 14percent of Afghanistan’s 407 districts, the watchdog said in July –unchanged from last year, when Trump unveiled his strategy.
The government, meanwhile, controls or influences 56 percent — down from57 percent in August 2017. The rest of the country is considered”contested”.
Despite the growing violence, an unprecedented ceasefire between thegovernment and Taliban in June ignited fresh hopes of peace. Efforts toconvince the militants to negotiate an end to the war would continue,analysts said.
“The Afghan and US governments realise that a peace process is the only wayto bring an end to all the violence and the broader war,” said MichaelKugelman of the Wilson Centre. – APP/AFP