ANKARA – The disappearance of journalist and Riyadh critic Jamal Khashoggifrom Saudi Arabia s Istanbul consulate has rattled already brittle tiesbetween two powerful rivals vying for influence in the Muslim world,analysts say.
The Washington Post contributor, who has penned articles critical of someof Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman s policies in the Arab andWestern press, vanished a week ago.
Turkish government sources at the weekend said police believed he waskilled inside, claims dismissed by Riyadh as “baseless”.
While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has demanded Saudi Arabiaprove their assertion that the journalist left the consulate, he has so farrefrained from giving credence to claims that Khashoggi is dead, saying hewill wait for an official probe.
Analysts say the diplomatic tip-toeing by both countries is a sign theyfear the case could stoke increased tensions, cautious of further strainingrelations in the midst of power plays stemming from overlapping interestsin the region.
“The only way to explain the hesitation on the part on Riyadh and Ankaranot to quickly announce what they think is happening is because they bothfear escalating the situation unnecessarily,” said Khalil Jahshan,executive director of Arab Center Washington.
“This is serious, this is a violation of a country s sovereignty, yetneither side can talk because of the national security and politicalconcerns. So until they resolve that we aren t going to know the details,”he added.
Khashoggi, a former Saudi government adviser, had been living inself-imposed exile in the United States since last year fearing possiblearrest.
The journalist has been a vocal critic of Riyadh s intervention in the warin Yemen, and once compared the young prince to Russian President VladimirPutin in a Washington Post column.
He has not been seen since he visited the consulate to collect documents heneeded for his forthcoming marriage.
The United Nations, United States and Britain have all urged a thoroughinvestigation.
Jana Jabbour, a professor at Sciences Po university in Paris, said Erdogan”does not want to enter into direct confrontation with Riyadh before beingassured of the position and support of other countries” like Qatar and theUnited States.
But she said the situation was “very grave” and “may lead to a break inTurkey-Saudi relations”.
Riyadh and Ankara are locked in competition on “regional leadership, religious leadership over the Sunni community and relations with theWest, especially with Washington”, Jabbour said, adding that they were”each out to get the other”.
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Regional rivalries have frayed bilateral relations.
Saudi Arabia is particularly unhappy with Erdogan s close ties to theMuslim Brotherhood, considered a “terrorist” group by Riyadh.
Turkey last June gave unwavering support to Qatar when Saudi Arabia, theUnited Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt broke ties with Doha, claiming itsupported “extremist groups” and was becoming closer with Iran, Riyadh sregional arch-rival.
But in an apparent effort to avoid tensions with Riyadh, Turkey has focusedits criticism on the UAE, with which relations are more acrimonious.
“Turkey started to make a distinction between Saudi Arabia and the UnitedArab Emirates in its criticism. While it was willing to be much more(vocal) with the United Arab Emirates, it preferred to be less vocal in itsunhappiness vis-a-vis Saudi Arabia,” said Galip Dalay, a visiting academicat the University of Oxford.
He said this is likely to change after the “reckless” case of Khashoggi.
But Dalay, a non-resident fellow at Brookings Institution, said Turkishofficials do not want the case to be seen as “politicised from the start”.
Jahshan said neither country “necessarily can afford to lose the othergiven the overlapping interests” in the region, pointing to the Gulfcrisis, the Syrian and Yemen conflicts as well as the differences over theMuslim Brotherhood group.
There has been speculation over whether Turkey can afford a break in tieswith its economy slowing down and increasingly reliant on Gulf tourists.
Around half a million Saudi tourists visited Turkey last year while SaudiArabia is among Turkey s top 20 export destinations.
But Dalay said he did not believe “that much money is involved betweenTurkey and Saudi Arabia”.
“The image of Turkey being a safe place for dissidents, business people,intellectuals from the Arab world… would be undermined if Turkey doesn tgive a strong reaction,” he added. – APP/AFP
