LAHORE: The new country report for the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) expects PML-N will return to power while risks to political stability willremain high in the run-up to the elections. The EIU is the researchdivision The Economist newspaper’s sister company.
The report says: “We expect the PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz) to bereelected on the back of a strong showing in Punjab, the most populousprovince.” The report foresees “a widening current account deficit andpersistent budget shortfalls pose the biggest risks to macroeconomicstability in 2018-22.”
The report “expects the outlook for political stability to remain poor in2018-22.” The report expects Shahbaz Sharif to next next prime minister,while “Nawaz Sharif will remain influential in the party”.
The “parlous domestic security situation will remain a key source ofinstability in 2018-22,” undermining economic “growth potential by posingongoing operational and strategic challenges to infrastructure projects”related to CPEC works and other projects.
The report says real GDP, on an expenditure basis, will expand by an annualaverage rate of 5.4 per cent per year until 2022, adding, “Growth will beunderpinned by increases in consumption and the improved performance ofexports relative to imports,” it explains.