President Donald Trump could take the decision on December 6 to recogniseJerusalem as the capital of Israel without worrying about any meaningfulbacklash from the Arab states. Unlike in 1973, when the Arabs effectivelyemployed the ‘oil weapon’ against the US and others for their pro-Israelstance following the Yom Kippur war, the US today is a net exporter of oiland gas; the Arab states are bleeding themselves in internecine wars, theMiddle East is in turmoil, and some Arab regimes are in undeclared butunambiguous alliance with Israel, bound together by a shared hatred andfear of Iran. The Arabs could do very little to hurt the US beyond passinga resolution in the UN General Assembly. The Palestinian search for analternative ‘broker’ will not lead anywhere. For good or bad, there isstill no substitute for America as an intermediary in Israeli-Palestiniantalks, however biased the Americans are in favour of Israel. In any case,it is Israel that calls the shots, not the US.
India’s vote in favour of Resolution ES-10/18 came as a surprise anddisappointment to a few. Some doubt had arisen because the government haddeparted from the traditional formulations regarding Palestine. ‘EastJerusalem’ was mentioned as future Palestine’s capital in the Manamadeclaration of January 2016 after the Indo-Arab forum, in the 2016Russia-India-China communique as well as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’smessage in 2016 on the occasion of the International Day of Solidarity withthe Palestinian People on November 29. In 2017, ‘East Jerusalem’ wasconspicuous by its absence in these statements. Our positive vote reclaimedthe goodwill of the Arabs and seems to have reassured Palestine, which hadfelt aggrieved when the PM paid a standalone visit to Israel. The Arabslobbied with our government for support, but in those meetings the Indianinterlocutors reportedly did not go beyond repeating the line of Indiafollowing an independent position, uninfluenced by pressure from anysource. Our affirmative vote has confirmed an independent policy.
While deciding on our vote, the government no doubt took into account thepossible reaction of Israel and the US and came to the confident conclusionthat it could comfortably deal with any negative impact from either. Eversince the then PM Narasimha Rao established diplomatic relations withIsrael in 1992, our ties with Israel have grown steadily and substantially.One of the factors influencing the decision on diplomatic relations at thetime was the expectation that the Jewish lobby in the US could be helpfulfor India; the days of ‘Hindi-American’ bhai-bhai were still in the future.
The Israeli defence industry is heavily dependent on the Indian market; webuy more than one-third of its defence production. Cooperation in otherfields has also expanded. Bilateral trade has increased from 200 milliondollars in 1992 to 3.5 billion dollars in 2015-16 and is expected to reach10 billion dollars in the next five years if the bilateral trade agreementis concluded. Most importantly, India is extremely important forIsrael-both politically and diplomatically. One vote not to their liking isnot going to change anything in Israel’s perception of India. Mr Netanyahuwill not cancel his visit to India in January. The question is: will he goback with some compensatory gesture from us?
With the US, the relationship might have reached a stage when an occasionalvote will not have a knee-jerk adverse effect. It is imperative for us todemonstrate our independent policy from time to time to foreign powers aswell as to our own people. Others will only respect us if we respectourselves. The two countries have a number of equities in each other.President Trump’s strategic review document has several positive referencesto India and he has spoken of helping India become a leading global power.The government of India has rightly taken his and his UN ambassador’sthreats in its stride. Let us see how the threat to cut off aid isimplemented with respect to Pakistan which even co-sponsored the anti-USresolution. -India Today
Written by: Chinmaya Gharekhan