LONDON – When two drones, each equipped with a kilogram of powerful plasticexplosives, were used on August 4 to attempt to assassinate VenezuelanPresident Nicolas Maduro, it may have ushered in a foreboding newera—terrorism by unmanned aircraft.
The use of weaponized drones by lone individuals and small groups—someacting as proxies of nation-states—is no longer just a concern for thefuture, but very much for the present. The proliferation of certainemerging technologies has effectively diffused power and made it availableat the lowest levels.
The barriers to entry have never been lower for individuals to gain accessto commercial off-the-shelf technology that can be used to lethally targetindividuals. Lone actors or small cells of terrorists, criminals, orinsurgents can effectively harness the tactical flexibility of a smalldrone to wreak havoc, including potentially using a drone to take down anairliner.
——————————
State sponsorship of terrorist groups also increases the likelihood ofdrone attacks, since states can provide the necessary equipment andtraining, ensuring that terrorist attacks featuring weaponized drones is anear fait accompli in the not-so-distant future.
It is already happening with Hezbollah and allegedly with the Houthirebels, who have used drones to ram Saudi air defences in Yemen. Somegroups are mastering drone technology without the help of state sponsors.In Syria, the Islamic State has successfully used drones to conductsurveillance and reconnaissance in addition to carrying out offensiveactions like dropping a grenade on an adversary’s military base.
Since so many countries are now using armed drones in combat—Nigeria,Pakistan, and Turkey have recently done so—the chances for sophisticateddrone technology getting into the wrong hands increases exponentially. If aterrorist group can steal or purchase a drone from a rogue state or corruptmilitary or intelligence officials, then they could rely on the myriadonline videos posted that essentially demonstrate how these unmannedsystems could be used to conduct an attack.
That the drones were able to get so close to a world leader at a publicoutdoor event in Caracas, Venezuela, speaks to how easy drones are touse—and how difficult they are to defend against.
——————————
Unmanned systems are proliferating and commercial off-the-shelf technologyis easy to acquire. Hobby shop drones are small, lightweight, andrelatively easy to manoeuvre after a modicum of practice. Military-styledrones are heavier, but can also carry a greater payload with moreexplosives. With the advent of machine learning and artificialintelligence, drones may soon become programmable and smart enough to beused without human guidance and for increasingly nefarious ends.
One nightmare scenario universally feared by law enforcement and securityservices is the use of a small drone to deliver chemical or biologicalagents in an attack. It is already well-established that al-Qaeda and otherterrorist groups have long sought to engineer a spectacular attack in theWest using weapons of mass destruction. The possibility that drones couldbe used to disperse deadly agents or viruses over a sports stadium orpublic gathering place is a harrowing prospect. Even if a drone attackfails to result in large numbers of fatalities, the attempt could stillachieve an attacker’s goal of perpetuating the psychological dimension ofterrorism.
——————————
In the future, the private-sector commercial and personal use of droneswill likely be ubiquitous in society. Drones have already been used todeliver pizzas and packages. If by, say, 2020 companies are regularly usingdrones to make home deliveries, this could make for a highly congestedairspace and potentially make it easier for terrorists to hide weaponizeddrones among the larger cluster of drone traffic.Drones snapping pictures or recording video will probably become so commonthat it will be nearly impossible to discern if a drone is being used toconduct surveillance of potential targets or sensitive sites thatterrorists are plotting to attack. The attempt on Maduro came close, andthe attention it has received in the media could embolden other similarattempts.
Terrorists are highly adaptive and innovative and will continue to find newways to spread fear and chaos. It is imperative that counterterrorismspecialists begin planning a robust response to the threat, not only interms of detection and counter-measure technology, but also the trainingnecessary to defend against attacks by weaponized drones. Over the longrun, laws and policies governing drone use need to be developed before anattack takes place, not in its aftermath.
Without such laws and policies, the next assassination attempt could verywell succeed.——————————
The article was originally published on the site of *World Economic Forumlink*.