ISLAMABAD – As bad as Pakistan’s relationship with the United States mayappear to be today, it can get far worse.
Over the past 16 years, which included hundreds of deadly US drone strikes,Osama bin Laden’s killing on Pakistani soil and accusations that Pakistanhelps insurgents who kill Americans, there is one point of no return thatthe two reluctant allies have never arrived at: Pakistan closing the airroutes to Afghanistan.
It’s an action that could all but cripple the US-backed military fightagainst the Taliban.
It could also be tantamount to Pakistan going to war with the United States.
Even if such a step is seen as unlikely by most officials and observers,Pakistan’s ability to shape the destiny of America’s longest war is areminder of how much leverage the country maintains at a time Trump issuspending military assistance to Pakistan.Pakistan’s leverage
“There’s some suggestion that we have all of the cards in our hands,” saidRichard Olson, a former US ambassador to Pakistan.
“But we don’t. The leverage is strong on the Pakistan side as well andarguably stronger than our side.”
Trump’s re-commitment of US forces to the fight in Afghanistan makes thestakes high for his administration.
The top US diplomat for South Asia, Alice Wells, made a low key visit toPakistan this week, suggesting both sides want to prevent a breach in ties.
Pakistan’s cooperation is needed not only to reduce violence in itsnorthern neighbour. It’s also critical to any hope of a politicalsettlement with the Afghan Taliban after decades of conflict.Seeking out alternatives
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has said the US doesn’t expect Pakistan to cutoff supply routes.
Even so, the US is seeking out alternatives, a senior administrationofficial said, without elaborating on what those routes might be.
The Pentagon wouldn’t discuss the issue, citing operational security, otherthan to say military planners develop “multiple supply chain contingencies”to sustain their mission.
The administration official, who wasn’t authorised to comment by name anddemanded anonymity, said it would be “very difficult” but not impossiblefor the US to get military equipment into Afghanistan if the Pakistan routeis shut down.
Restrictions limit what types of supplies can flow through the NorthernDistribution Network in Central Asia, set up during the Obamaadministration amid concerns about relying solely on Pakistan.
Pakistan has cut overland access before. When a US airstrike killed 24Pakistani soldiers at the Afghan-Pakistan frontier in late 2011, monthsafter the US commando raid that killed bin Laden, Pakistan blocked bordercrossings into Afghanistan.
The decision sunk US-Pakistani relations to a post-9/11 low point.
Supply trucks that trundle across desert into Afghanistan’s southernKandahar province or into Nangarhar via the mountainous Khyber Pass groundto a halt. Hundreds of containers shipped from the US or the Gulf were leftstranded in the Pakistani port of Karachi until mid-2012.
For the US, truck and rail costs inflated by about 50 percent, said DavidSedney, a former Pentagon official who organized the alternative northernroutes. He said deliveries by air cost three times as much or more.
But the saga, resolved through a US apology, also exposed the limits ofPakistan’s leverage, Sedney said.
Pakistan’s own economy was hurt, notably the military-dominated truckingindustry. And the Afghan war effort, which was then supporting more than70,000 US troops, compared with around 16,000 now, endured.
That was perhaps the result of Pakistan never closing the air corridor intoAfghanistan, which US pilots call “the boulevard.”
It’s essential for ferrying ammunition and weapons for US and Afghanforces, and waging war. US intelligence flights and combat missions use itwhen taking off from US bases in the Persian Gulf or from aircraft carriersin the Indian Ocean.Grounds for war
Since closing Pakistan’s airspace would hinder America’s ability to defendits forces in Afghanistan, Olson, the former ambassador, said the US mightregard such action as a “casus belli,” or grounds for war. Other former USofficials echoed that assessment.
“From what I can tell we don’t actually have any serious alternative,” saidDaniel Markey, a South Asia expert at the John Hopkins School of AdvancedInternational Studies.
Sedney said the Northern Distribution Network, which fell out of use aftermost US forces were withdrawn from Afghanistan by late 2014, could berestored with astute US diplomacy.
Nations such as Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan all havebeen used before for transporting mostly nonlethal supplies. Poor USrelations with Russia could make the task trickier, however. Moscow wieldssignificant influence over these former Soviet states.