ISLAMABAD – A research conducted by AKD Securities Limited gave a snapshotof results of elections 2018 showing which political party could make nextgovernment in the country.
The survey forecasts Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s major lead over all otherparties, including Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and PakistanPeoples Party (PPP). The recent study indicates the Imran Khan-led partywould bag 99 seats of the National Assembly, while the PML-N is expected towin 72 lower house seats.
It adds, “Filters through litigation against graft as well as weakperformance and media trials over the past year have polarized thepolitical landscape ahead of the 2018 General Elections”.
Predicting hung parliament, it said: “Our constituency-wise mappingexercise which involved visiting districts in Punjab and speaking withpolitical observers as well as members of prominent families/tribes inother provinces to measure sentiment (supported by our statistical seatprediction model and Monte Carlo simulations) shows that no single party islikely to win an absolute majority to form Government at the center”.
In this situation, the PTI would make a coalition government with supportfrom national parties along with independents or join hands with PPP tolead the government in the centre, the survey company said, adding, “PML-Nleads the coalition with support from PPPP considering they could bondtogether under a common persecution theme along with provincial parties andindependents”.
Without a clear majority, PML-N would also need able coalition partners(seat adjustments likely with PPPP, MMA, MQM, PSP and others) to form thegovernment at the center, a scenario which appears to be less likely basedon the dilution of its vote bank in northern & southern Punjab, in our view.
Unfolding the expected province-wise results, the opinion polls predict,“In Punjab, we see the Shahbaz Sharif led PMLN and Khan’s PTI in a photofinish race in Punjab with our three-pronged approach (constituencymapping, Seat Prediction Model and Monte Carlo Simulation exercise) showingthe PML-N to secure 66 NA seats (47% of the province representation),followed by PTI with 64 NA seats”.
In Sindh, the PPPP would retain its dominance by securing 30 NA seatssupported by wider candidacy and visibility of electables i.e. limitationof candidate options outside urban Sindh (vs. 32 NA seats in the 2013election) while the MQM-P is expected to lose key urban seats to PSP(former members with electability of unified MQM ), PTI and the PPPP inKarachi and its urban districts taking its total expected NA seatrepresentation to 13 across the province of Sindh.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PTI expected to be voted back into power with 24lower house seats as compared to 17 in 2013.
Moreover, the recent delimitation exercise – adding four more NAconstituencies to the KPK province – is a significant positive for PTI asthe newly added constituencies are under PTI strong-hold areas furtheradding to likely re-election of PTI from KPK.
That said, the coalition of religious parties (JI & JUI-F) in the garb ofthe revived MMA (ruled KPK from2002-08 under the Musharraf regime) could get eight seats.
Historically, there have not been many instances where a single party hasbeen able to represent Balochistan on a national level adding to the lackof political identity of the province. Political participation has beenminimal with economic and social issues of the province undermined bydecades of ethnic and sectarian violence.
The survey shows Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) would get 3 seats,MMA 3, Balochistan National Party (BNP) 2 and the National Party (NP) 2.