LONDON – British Prime Minister Theresa May faces crushing defeat in ahistoric vote in parliament on Tuesday over the Brexit deal she has struckwith the European Union, leaving the world’s fifth biggest economy in limbo.
With just over two months to go until the scheduled Brexit date of March29, Britain is still bitterly divided over what should happen next and theonly suspense over the vote is the scale of May’s defeat.
The British leader’s last-minute appeals to MPs appear to have fallen ondeaf ears and how much she loses by could determine whether she triesagain, loses office, delays Brexit or if Britain even leaves the EU at all.
“When the history books are written, people will look at the decision ofthis house… and ask: did we deliver on the country’s vote to leave theEuropean Union,” May asked MPs on the eve of the vote, expected from around1900 GMT.
A German government spokesman on Tuesday denied a report in The Sun tabloidthat German Chancellor Angela Merkel had suggested to May in a phone-callthat the EU could grant extra concessions in the event of a defeat. “The chancellor has given no assurances,” he said.
Opposition to the deal forced May to postpone the vote in December in thehope of winning extra concessions from Brussels but EU leaders offered onlya series of clarifications and have ruled out re-negotiating the deal.
The vote is the climax of over two years of intense national debateafter the shock Brexit referendum of 2016 — a result that mostlypro-Remain MPs have struggled with.
Hardline Brexiteers and Remainers oppose the agreement for differentreasons and many fear it could lock Britain into an unfavourable tradingrelationship with the EU.
Pro- and anti-Brexit campaigners rallied outside parliament ahead of thevote. One placard read “EU Membership is the Best Deal”, another said: “NoDeal? No Problem!”
Uncertainty over Brexit has hit the British economy hard. The Society ofMotor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) lobby group on Tuesday warned MPsthat Britain crashing out of the EU would be “catastrophic”.
Financial markets will also be watching the result very closely, withseveral currency traders roping in extra staff around the time of the voteand at least one putting a cap in trades to avoid excessive currencymovements.Rather than heal the divisions exposed by the Brexit referendum, the votehas reignited them. Pro-European MPs campaigning to force a second vote saythey have faced death threats and harassment outside parliament.
Brexit supporters around the country have also voiced growing frustrationwith what they see as parliamentary blockage of their democratic vote.
Criticism is focused on an arrangement to keep open the border with Irelandby aligning Britain with some EU trade rules, if and until London andBrussels sign a new economic partnership which could take several years.
May has offered parliament greater oversight of this so-called backstop andEU leaders have also given written assurances that the arrangement wouldnot become permanent.
A handful of Conservative MPs have changed their minds to back the deal butthe core of May’s critics say she has not done enough.
Sammy Wilson, Brexit spokesman with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP),the Northern Irish party on whom May relies for her Commons majority, toldthe BBC his party would not be forced into backing the deal by fears overthe border.
“We fought (against) a terrorist campaign (in order) to stay part of theUnited Kingdom,” he said, evoking Northern Ireland’s past conflict. “We are not going to allow bureaucrats in Brussels to separate usfrom the rest of the United Kingdom.”
Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said May had “completely andutterly failed” to ease MPs’ concerns and said if she loses the vote onTuesday night, she must call an election.
His party has said it will call a confidence vote in her government”soon” after the virtually certain defeat.