ISLAMABAD – The rise of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria in 2013shook global tectonic plates, and they are reverberating to this day.States around the globe are utilising hard and soft power to eliminate theinfamous terror network. Despite this, it has managed to retain a massivefootprint in Afghanistan. In some areas, it is even more powerful than theTaliban. It was easy for the group to establish a presence and gathermanpower in a conflict zone like Afghanistan.
Resolute Support Mission and Regional states including Russia, Iran andPakistan are quite serious about eliminating IS. But there is stillconfusion and mistrust among all regional powers about how this is to bedone. Russians do not trust the Resolute Support Mission and its efforts toeliminate IS. Former President Hamid Karazi and Russian authorities havecategorically stated that NATO did not pay attention when IS was rising,which NATO has denied loudly and clearly. Meanwhile, IS has continuedslaughtering people in Afghanistan on an almost daily basis. Over 10,000Afghan civilians have lost their lives or were injured in terrorist attacksin 2017 according to United Nations (UN). And it looks like 2018 is goingto be even deadlier. It is a tell-tale sign that most of the attacks thisyear have been staged by IS.
The question is, why does a gargantuan military power like Russia needPakistan’s help to tackle the rise of IS in Afghanistan? We also need toask why Pakistan needs Russia’s support and why it is getting closer toRussia.
Russians understand that there are serious fault lines which IS canexploit. There are already militant Islamist parties in Central Asia whichcan provide it with support. These include the Islamic Renaissance Party(ISP), Hizb-Ut-Tahrir (HT) and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU).The majority of the people running IS operations in Afghanistan andPakistan are already from the IMU. They are based in northern and easternAfghanistan and exploit the porous Pak-Afghan border to run theiroperations in this country.
Moreover, the Russian authorities believe that there are thousands of ISterrorists in northern and eastern Afghanistan and there is increasing riskof terrorist penetration into Central Asia and Russia. The terror network’spresence in the Northern Caucasus in countries like Chechnya, Dagestan andothers is already a serious concern. Iraq’s recent prosecution of 19Russian girls for working with IS already has the Kremlin worried.
To take on this threat, Russia needs a regional mechanism to tackle IS, andPakistan has an important role in this regard. Without Islamabad’s support,tracing and eliminating IS elements will not be possible, as Pakistan haslong dealt with the region’s non-state factors. It was because ofPakistan’s support to the US that the al-Qaeda infrastructure andleadership was eliminated.
It should not be assumed that Islamabad has full control over non-stateactors like the Taliban, but Pakistan’s influence cannot be underestimated.This is why having Pakistan on board in Afghanistan-related affairs will bea great asset for Moscow.
Meanwhile, Pakistan has been facing sectarian attacks on shrines as well asthe Christian and Hazara minority groups in Quetta. It is theLashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) — which is associated with IS in Afghanistan andPakistan — which is behind these attacks. This is why both the Kremlin andIslamabad will benefit from an anti-IS partnership. However, Pakistan isalso looking to a Russian alliance to make up for its deterioratingrelationship with the US.
If Moscow abandons us when its security needs are taken care of, we shouldnot be left complaining the way we did when Washington did the same
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister has already stated that countries like Russiaand China are there in case Pakistan’s relations with the US sour. Nodoubt, Russia is also wilfully exploiting the widening disconnect betweenIslamabad and Washington.
The Russian partnership with Pakistan is also not limited to militaryventures. The Russians still believe that Pakistan’s FederallyAdministrated Tribal Areas (FATA) are insecure, and that IS penetrationfrom Afghanistan into Baluchistan remains to be controlled. Pakistan iscurrently fencing the border with Afghanistan, and until this is done, ISpenetration cannot be fully stopped. An IS threat to Pakistan is a threatfor Russia as well.
Since Pakistan is the regional country most involved in Afghanistan, aRussian delegation recently visited Islamabad and was quite vocal aboutmaking a partnership. This is unprecedented, because the majority of thecivil military leadership in Moscow still has a Cold War mind-set. It willtherefore take Moscow sometime to fully engage with Islamabad.
However, it has already opened an Honorary counsellor in Peshawar to boosteconomic activity. However, since currently trade between the two countriesamounts to a meagre $500 million, there are many who believe that thecounsellor’s real purpose is to monitor IS and similar groups. That tradewas not discussed at all when Pakistan’s first ministerial delegationvisited Russia recently is a telling sign.
IS presence in Pakistan is loose and scattered. Lone wolf phenomena isrelevant, because individual members have been targeting minorities andengaging in sectarian attacks. The groups is also spreading its ideology incyber space and this is a serious threat for Pakistan as its cyber laws andtheir enforcement are very weak.
Going forward, Islamabad needs to be careful about how it crafts itsrelationship with Moscow. Care should be taken that it is not a partnershipbased solely on security related matters — it should be a multilateralrelationship. If Moscow abandons us when its security needs are taken careof, we should not be left complaining the way we did when Washington didthe same.
*BY: Qamar Cheema The writer is a Strategic and Political analyst. Heteaches international politics in NUML Islamabad*