ISLAMABAD – The first thing the Republican US President Donald Trump did tostart his new year was to open a cannon of insults against Pakistan, an oldAmerican ally from the Cold War days. The tirade of insults posted ontwitter wasn’t diplomatic and his accusations were not factual, but thenagain neither President Donald Trump nor his kitchen cabinet in WashingtonDC is known for either of those.
The Pakistani leadership, namely the Foreign Minister Mr. Khawaja Asif wasquick to reject Trump’s tweet but chose a careful diplomatic line for theofficial state policy that would be delivered the old fashioned way, not onTwitter. It however didn’t stop there, since the White House PressSecretary declared that specific measures would be announced againstPakistan. The State Department placed Pakistan on a rather ironic list of‘religious freedom violators’.
This geopolitical standoff between the two traditional allies mighteventually subside, however the damage to the relationship has already beendone and it is likely to force Pakistan to further diversify
The US government has also frozen all military assistance to Pakistanunless it sees the actions it wants to see from Pakistan, in other words;coercion is the method of choice now. The US Ambassador to the UnitedNations Nimrata Randhawa aka Nikki Haley accused Pakistan of ‘playing adouble game’, the conservative US Senator Rand Paul wants all kinds of aidcut to Pakistan in favor of building roads and bridges in the United States.
In short, Washington DC has decided to ‘squeeze’ Pakistan in a sign offurther desperation and frustration as its war in Afghanistan gets stuck ina self inflicted quagmire, the fears of another ‘Vietnam’ loom large inWashington. This scenario is more of a crisis for the Donald Trumpadministration than it is for Pakistan, but it also represents a uniquegeopolitical opportunity for President Putin.
*Timing*
This development in Washington isn’t unexpected for Pakistan; it is only arepeat of what the transactional relationship between the two countries isall about. That said, there are other key contributing factors at play herewhich are certainly responsible for accelerating this decision by the TrumpAdministration. Some analysts have cited the recent UNGA vote on the statusof Jerusalem as a contributing factor as Pakistan declared open support forthe two state solution and voted against the controversial and arbitrarymove by the United States just like much of the world did including allUNSC members excluding the United States.
The military hardware sales that were in the pipeline will also be‘frozen’, namely the mission critical AH-1Z attack helicopters andassociated hardware in order to increase pressure on Pakistan’s
Another contributing factor is the increasingly influential Indian lobbyingcampaign by India to undermine the US, Pakistan relationship. While all ofthe aforementioned factors have their own merits, one cannot ignore theoverarching geopolitical climate in the region, especially when Pakistan isincreasingly reaching out to Russia to cultivate a log lasting partnershipbased on mutual interests modeled after its partnership with China. Forexample only recently the two countries are planning to sign a multibilliondollar gas pipelinelink>dealas well as discussing numerous deals for military hardware.
The United States is obviously unhappy over such moves by Pakistan becauseit undermines its anti-Russia sanctions and attempts to isolate Moscowinternationally. Then there is the ever increasing geopolitical symmetrybetween Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran and Turkey on the core issue ofcounter terrorism and the war in Afghanistan. The US policy has effectivelybeen outflanked by regional countries working together to bring real peacein Afghanistan and the region at large.*Response*
With China, Iran, Turkey, all vocally backing Pakistan’s position onAfghanistan in the wake of the Trump administration’s India inspired‘squeeze Pakistan’ policy, the leadership in Pakistan has decided to takeits own countermeasures. Pakistan can well and truly be expected to‘squeeze back’ because it is totally in a position to do so.
Mr. Putin has declared his intentions of providing military hardware toPakistan to counter terrorism; if there is ever going to be a right time toact upon that intention, it is right now.
For starters, if the United States refuses to pay reimbursements forrendered services by Pakistan aka the Coalition Support Fund, consequentlythose services including the vital geographic access to Afghanistan will beblocked. Pakistan also has been a key contributor in providing intelligenceto the United States, which can be cut back. Pakistan has also announcedthat it will expel 1.5 million Afghan refugees who entered its territory onhumanitarian grounds as a result of the decades old US intervention in thecountry.
In addition to these measures, Pakistan is focusing only on stabilizing itsside of the border with Afghanistan with a 2100km long fence which will becompleted by the end of 2018. The border with Afghanistan will also seehundreds of Pakistan’s paramilitary posts and forts pop up to harbor apermanent military presence to counter terrorist infiltration fromAfghanistan’s lawless regions as well as stopping illegal migration, drugtrafficking and smuggling of food and fuel into Afghanistan. Thesecountermeasures are designed to increase the pressure on the US fundedquasi government in Kabul and ultimately on the United States.*Opportunity *
This developing situation in Pakistan is certainly going to turn into ageopolitical crisis for the Trump administration in the coming weeks andmonths; however such a crisis in such an important country is also a uniquegeopolitical opportunity for Mr. Putin.
The geopolitical vacuum left by the short sighted decisions taken by theTrump administration regarding its engagement with Pakistan can be filledby Russia, especially in areas where the United States is trying to‘squeeze’ Pakistan
The aforementioned environment is now conducive for Russia to cultivate atruly strategic partnership with Pakistan, a country which is thecenterpiece of the One Belt One Road initiative, controls strategicallycritical geography and possesses immense economic and military potential;therefore such a country in such close proximity with Russia is definitelya natural ally for Moscow. Through its close partnership with China,Pakistan’s leaders have proven that given a fair playing field, Pakistan iscapable of cultivating, sustaining and nurturing long term strategicpartnerships.
Such a partnership is based on geopolitical rationality and there isclearly a symmetry of interest at play; Pakistan and Russia both need eachother in fields like economics, military hardware, diplomacy, transit tradeand above all geopolitically. In this context an opportunity lies for Mr.Putin to capitalize on by taking the necessary steps to confidentlyestablish such a partnership arrangement with Islamabad.
The geopolitical vacuum left by the short sighted decisions taken by theTrump administration regarding its engagement with Pakistan can be filledby Russia, especially in areas where the United States is trying to‘squeeze’ Pakistan, namely in the military hardware dimension. Mr. Putinhas declared his intentions of providing military hardware to Pakistan tocounter terrorism; if there is ever going to be a right time to act uponthat intention, it is right now.
Afghanistan will also see hundreds of Pakistan’s paramilitary posts andforts pop up to harbor a permanent military presence to counter terroristinfiltration from Afghanistan’s lawless regions as well as stopping illegalmigration, drug trafficking and smuggling of food and fuel into Afghanistan.
Pakistan would also appreciate resolute diplomatic support from Moscow torelieve the engineered pressure from the United States. The US iseffectively ‘punishing’ Pakistan for acting contrary to its geopoliticaldesigns against Russia and China; it therefore becomes a geopoliticalresponsibility for Russia to cushion Pakistan when it is being ‘squeezed’by the United States.*Forecast*
– United States will ultimately cut down all civil-military aid to Pakistan as well as the reimbursements under the so called ‘Coalition Support Fund’. The military hardware sales that were in the pipeline will also be ‘frozen’, namely the mission critical AH-1Z attack helicopters and associated hardware in order to increase pressure on Pakistan’s military by undermining their technical ability to fight terrorism at home. – It is likely that if this situation escalates, the US military will try to carry out cross border attacks in Pakistan on their perceived targets, which will engineer a crisis between the two countries. – Pakistan is likely to shut down all services to the United States military if the payments for those services are frozen. – Pakistan is also likely to shut down land and air transit to Afghanistan for the US military supplies which will greatly hamper Trump’s intensified war in Afghanistan. – China, Russia, Turkey and Iran have lent their vocal support to Pakistan in the past; it is likely that the aforementioned trend will continue.
This geopolitical standoff between the two traditional allies mighteventually subside, however the damage to the relationship has already beendone and it is likely to force Pakistan to further diversify its foreignrelations and interests including an increased outreach to Russia.
*Shahid Raza is Assistant Editor (Strategic Affairs) with Global VillageSpace. **His area of expertise is the analysis of hybrid warfare strategiesinvolving Pakistan, India, China, Russia, Central and South Asia, NorthAmerica and the Middle East. Shahid frequently **writes** for Moscow based **think** tank, Katehon. *