JERUSALEM – Last Friday, Israel’s Defense Ministry laconically announcedthat it had carried a test launchlinkofa “rocket engine propulsion system.”
Foreign reports claimed that the test was of a surface-to-surface Jerichomissile. Though the Defense Ministry said that the test was planned inadvance, it was hard to ignore the timing and not to interpret it as awarning and threat directed at Iranlink. Indeed, its foreignminister, Javad Zarif, complained in a tweetlinkthatwhile Western democracies accuse his country of secret intentions todevelop nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them them, Israel isactually the only country in “Western Asia” (in his words) that possessnuclear weapons and develops missiles for delivering them.
In the background are reports that Iran has deployed missiles in Iraqlink, 400 kilometers fromIsrael, and Yemen link,2,000 kilometers away. A letter sent by Germany, France and the U.K. to theUN secretary general accused Iran of having the capability to developmissiles equipped with nuclear warheads in violation of the MissileTechnology Control Regime. According to the letter, a MTRC breach occurswhen a missile can carry a 500-kilogram warhead with a range of 300kilometers. Last April, Iran was seen testing the Shahab-3 missile, whichfits such a definition. But the Jericho has similar capabilities, based onforeign reports.
Israel has an arsenal of sea, air and ground rockets and missiles forinterception and offensive purposes, whose existence it acknowledges. Forthe sake of this article, let’s only focus on its land-based arsenal. Ithas short-range (up to 50 kilometers) rockets like the Tamuz, which havebeen occasionally used against targets in Syrialink and Lebanonlink.
Former Defense Minister Avigdor Libermanlink advocatedthe creation of a missile command meant to extend the range ofsurface-to-surface projectiles to 200 kilometers, in order to improve themilitary’s firepower and to provide the Air Force with an additional tool.But the military, including former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, objectedto the notion and killed the initiative. The military has a long traditionof rejecting new ideas and “out the box” thinking. So, for example, themilitary, and especially the air force, opposed the creation of systems toprotect civilian infrastructure, including the Iron Dome system.
The military has the Iron Dome’s interception missiles (with a range of upto 70 km), David’s Sling (up to 200 kilometers, although its operationalcapabilities are still flawed), U.S.-made Patriots (up to 80 kilometers),and the Arrow 2 and 3 (over 300 kilometers). An Arrow 4 model, which usesmultiple warheads, is reportedly under development. The Arrow 3 is amissile that flies above the atmosphere (according to foreign reports, at aheight of over 100 kilometers) and is made for intercepting ballisticmissiles far from Israel’s borders.
Yet Israel has never admitted that it possesses Jericho missiles. Accordingto foreign reports, these missiles were developed from a French-mademissile type. In 1957, Shimon Peres, then a senior Defense Ministryofficial, was present when France conducted a nuclear missile test inAlgeria.
Since then, according to such reports, Israel has extended the Jericho’srange and given it the capability to carry nuclear warheads. The Jerichoreportedly now has a range of 4,000 kilometers. It is thus the onlyballistic missile Israel has. It also reportedly has the Shavit missilelauncher, which sends satellites (mainly reconnaissance) into space.
One of the most interesting questions is why Israel has never launched theJericho during military operations. The possibility was reportedly raisedat least twice. The first time was early in the Yom Kippur War, whenDefense Minister Moshe Dayan and some of his generals, including RehavamZeevi reportedly panicked and spoke in apocalyptic terms of the“destruction of the Third Temple.” They debated the possibility, rejectedoutright by other generals and by politicians, of threatening to use anuclear weapon. There were reports that Israel had armed and deployednuclear-tipped Jericho missiles stationed in underground silos.
The second occasion, according to foreign reports, was during the Gulf War,in January 1991, the first night that Saddam Hussein ordered the firing ofScud missiles at Tel Aviv and Haifa.[image: Smoke from an Israeli missile test.]Click Here
Fearing that Israel would fiercely retaliate and sabotage the U.S.-ledcoalition war, Defense Secretary Dick Cheney suggested to Israel that itrespond in measure by launching conventional Jericho missiles at Iraq.Cheney used the biblical comparison of “an eye for an eye,” i.e. a missilefor a missile. But Israeli officials, led by Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir,rejected the idea Amerian syurces explained that at that time, that at thetime the Jericho’s range was insufficient to hit Baghdad or othersignificant Iraqi targets.
But based on the foreign reports the main reason the idea was rejected wasthat Jericho missiles are meant to serve as strategic weapons (similar tothe submarines) as a nuclear last resort. Such an assumption makes sense.Foreign experts estimate that one Jericho missile, without its warhead,costs $10 million. It is a very expensive missile, and experts believe thatIsrael has dozens, or even up to 100, such missiles. Assuming that aJericho missile can carry a one-ton conventional warhead, it seems uselessto “waste” when a warplane can deliver a payload eight times heavier.
Thus, assuming that Israel will never use the nuclear weapons that most ofthe world believes it has (such a use would also mean the country’sdemise), it is clear that the Jericho missiles’ sole purpose is deterrence– above all against Iran but also against Pakistan, located around 4,000kilometers away, which is the exact range of Jericho. Not that Israelleaders think in such terms. Pakistan’s main enemy is India. But inIsrael’s eyes, Pakistan is the only country that has an “Islamic bomb.”
In the past, Israel was very worried about Pakistan. Libyalink, under MuammarGadhafi, gave millions of dollars to help Pakistan build the bomb. Pakistanignored the request. Yet Dr. Abdul Khader Khan, the “father of thePakistani bomb,” was also the number one nuclear proliferator who helpedLibya and Iran obtain nuclear know-how and technology. The concern aboutPakistan remains at the heart of the Israel-India strategic partnership,which includes military intelligence. It was also reported in the past thatthe Mossad was monitoring Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. It is onlyreasonable that after Iran, Pakistan’s capabilities are of a high priorityin Israeli security considerations, Israeli media Haartez has reported