NEW DELHI – The exit polls for the five-state assembly elections indicatedisaster for the BJP. If their prediction proves correct, Rajasthan will belost to the BJP, M.P. and Chattisgarh’s possibly lost too. In Telangana andMizoram, it may draw a blank. Large scale communal riots are likely toensue.
Lok Sabha elections are a war for the Delhi Sultanate, and Indian historyshows that in such wars, rivers of blood flow, e.g. in the War ofSuccession after Shah Jahan’s illness. So, every dirty trick to win will beused by all parties. Congress was in power for half a century, BJP for onlyabout 10 years. Naturally, it would not like to lose power, and will useevery mean to retain it. And being in power in the centre and in manystates gives it a distinct advantage, as it will definitely use the statemachinery for its benefit.
The main problem for the BJP is this: Its secure vote bank is the uppercaste Hindus, but these collectively are only about 20 percent in bigstates like UP and Bihar. To win elections one needs over 30 percent votes.So, getting the additional 10 percent is the main problem for BJP.
In the 2017 UP assembly elections, this problem was solved by winning overmany non-Yadav OBCs, who had the grievance that Samajwadi Party benefitsonly the Yadavas, and not other OBCs. Hence, BJP gave a lot of tickets tonon-Yadav OBCs, resulting in a landslide victory for BJP. But the non-YadavOBCs are not a reliable BJP vote bank.
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The only alternative left with BJP is whipping up communal frenzy on amassive scale in an effort to get hold of a section of the non-upper casteHindu vote. It was this gambit, which raised the BJP seats in the Lok Sabhafrom 2 in 1984 to 182 in 1999.
