WASHINGTON – Pakistan currently has 140 to 150 nuclear warheads and thestockpile is expected to increase to 220 to 250 by 2025 if the currenttrend continues, according to a latest report by authors keeping a track ofthe country’s nukes.
The current estimate of 140 to 150 nuclear weapons exceeds the projectionmade by the US Defense Intelligence Agency in 1999 that Pakistan would have60 to 80 warheads by 2020.
“We estimate that the country’s stockpile could more realistically grow to220 to 250 warheads by 2025, if the current trend continues. If thathappens, it would make Pakistan the world’s fifth-largest nuclear weaponstate,” Hans M Kristensen, Robert S Norris and Julia Diamond said in thereport ‘Pakistani nuclear forces 2018’.
Kristensen, the lead author, is the director of the Nuclear InformationProject with the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) in Washington, DC.
Over the past decade, the US assessment of nuclear weapons security inPakistan appears to have changed considerably from confidence to concern,particularly as a result of the introduction of tactical nuclear weapons,the report said.
“With several delivery systems in development, four plutonium productionreactors, and its uranium enrichment facilities expanding, however,Pakistan has a stockpile that will likely increase further over the next 10years,” says the report.
Pakistan continues to expand its nuclear arsenal with more warheads, moredelivery systems and a growing fissile materials production industry, itsaid.
“Analysis of a large number of commercial satellite images of Pakistaniarmy garrisons and air force bases shows what appear to be mobile launchersand underground facilities that might be related to nuclear forces,” saidthe report.
The authors observe that the size of the increase will depend on manyfactors.
Two key factors will be how many nuclear-capable launchers Pakistan plansto deploy, and how much the Indian nuclear arsenal grows.
“Speculation that Pakistan may become the world’s third-largest nuclearweapon state ? with a stockpile of some 350 warheads a decade from now ?are, we believe, exaggerated, not least because that would require abuildup two to three times faster than the growth rate over the past twodecades,” the authors said.
According to the report, Pakistan is modifying its nuclear posture with newshort-range nuclear-capable weapon systems to counter military threatsbelow the strategic level.
“The efforts seek to create a full-spectrum deterrent that is designed notonly to respond to nuclear attacks, but also to counter an Indianconventional incursion onto Pakistani territory,” it said.