ISLAMABAD – SINCE the announcement of the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review ofthe United States, Chinese and Russians have shown enthusiasm for thedevelopment of missile shield. The Americans have already been investinggigantically in the perfection of its missile defence program. Indeed, thedevelopment and operationalization of a reliable missile defence could posea serious challenge to the effectiveness of the offensive ballisticmissiles and also undermine the deterrence stability between/among thestrategic competitors.
Recently, Moscow and Beijing demonstrated the strength of their home-grownmissile defence technologies. The former conducted the test of a newRussian ballistic missile interceptor on February 12, 2018. The generalimpression is that it is an upgrade of the Soviet-era A-135 missile defencesystem. On February 5, 2018, China carried out a land-based mid-coursemissile interception test. It involved a Dong Neng-3 (DN-3/KO09)hit-to-kill midcourse interceptor successfully striking a target DF-21(CSS-5) medium-range ballistic missile. According to reports, Chineseconducted three midcourse interceptor tests. This interceptor is designedto destroy a ballistic missile travelling in space before it re-enters theatmosphere.
The DN-3 could be commissioned for the purpose of an anti-satellite (ASAT)platform to destroy or blind adversary’s spy satellites. The United Stateshas been trying to develop and operationalize its Ballistic Missile Defencesystem since the mid-1990s. Therefore, Washington withdrew from 1972anti-ballistic missile Treaty in June 2002. The American scientificcommunity has been concentrating on the development of multi-tieredballistic missile defences (land, sea, air, with space as the fourth tier,also described as the ‘fourth medium of warfare’).
The Rumsfeld Space Commission ascribed orbital weapons significantimportance that would provide the US with an extraordinary advantage inmilitary conflicts. “A product of Rumsfeld’s militaristic vision of space,the X-37B Unmanned Space Vehicle (USV) that has been in orbit since April2010 may serve as a test-bed for space-based weapon technologies.” NuclearPosture Review 2018 also revealed “the United States will develop a futurearchitecture which will include modernized SBIRS (Space Based InfraredSystem) satellites and integrate missile defence sensors to maximizewarning time.”
The United States successfully tested the Ground-based Midcourse Defence(GMD) system in Alaska on May 30, 2016. It was a first-of-its-kind test. Itwas like hitting a bullet with another bullet. Vice Admiral Jim Syring,director of the US Missile Defence Agency stated: “This system is vitallyimportant to the defence of our homeland, and this test demonstrates thatwe have a capable, credible deterrent against a very real threat.” The GMDsystem uses globally deployed sensors to detect and track offensiveintercontinental ballistic missile. Thus, it is designed to protect theentire United States from Intercontinental Ballistic Missile attacks.
The missile defence systems development is a complicated and difficultventure. Therefore, today, only United States, Russia and China are inpossession of missile defence systems. Despite the technologicalimpediments, New Delhi has been developing its own missile shield. India’sDefence Research and Development Organization announced that it was workingon ways to protect the country against missiles that have a range of up to5,000 kilometres. India may purchase modern early-warning radars needed toguide interceptors from Israel.
The nurturing of the Indian missile defence system is alarming for thestrategic stability in South Asia because it intensifies arms race betweenIndia and Pakistan. Although, the development of missile defence systems isdefensive in nature, yet it dents the credibility of the offensivemissiles. It destabilizes the deterrence stability, which is based on thethreat of retaliation. Thus, the missile shield would unleash lethal armsrace. It is because arsenal designed for deterrence must be able to survivean enemy first strike and still inflict unacceptable damage on the attacker.
The missile defence systems development obliges the security consciousnations to introduce more sophisticated striking weapons. The missiledefence systems dent the credibility of the counterstrike capability of adeterring state. Therefore, the states need to improve their retaliatoryarsenals just to maintain the same level of deterrence. They wouldmanufacture more sophisticated multiple striking weapons such asindependently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV), advance cruise missiles,laser weapons to hit satellites, etc. to enhance the credibility ofcounterstrike capability.
To conclude, the missile defence systems necessitate modernization andexpanding of offensive forces for the sustainability of deterrencestability.
Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal — The writer is Associate Professor, School ofPolitics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.