NEW DELHI – India’s economy grew at its slowest pace in more than six yearsin the July-September period, down to 4.5 percent from 7.0 percent a yearago, according to government figures released Friday that piled morepressure on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The expansion in Asia’s third-largest economy fell from 5.0 percent inApril-June and marked the sixth consecutive quarterly contraction.
The GDP growth, now well below the level needed for India to provide themillions of jobs required each year for new entrants to the labour market,poses a major headache for Modi.
His government is struggling to kickstart what was once the world’s fastestgrowing major economy as consumer demand shrinks and unemployment surges toa four-decade high.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has announced several reforms, easingrestrictions on foreign investment in key sectors, slashing corporatetaxes, and launching a privatisation drive aimed at reviving moribund statefirms.
The central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, has cut interest rates fiveconsecutive times this year in a bid to boost lending.
But none of the measures have raised consumer confidence. Demand foreverything from cars to cookies has plummeted.
The slump has already seen India lose its position as the fastest-growingmajor economy to China this year.
China said last month that its economy grew 6.0 percent in July-September,down from 6.2 percent in the second quarter.
Economists expect India’s central bank to announce yet another rate cut onThursday to combat a liquidity crunch caused by the collapse of India’sshadow banking sector. Rates are currently at a nine-year low.
– Patchy record –
Economist and author Vivek Kaul told AFP that the reforms were a case oftoo little, too late.
“The Modi government waited for growth to collapse” before taking anyaction, Kaul said.
“The steps are essentially very marginal and not going to help the economyin the long run,” he said, adding that more far-reaching reforms wereneeded but were unlikely to happen.
Modi’s right-wing government won a landslide re-election victory in May butits economic record has been patchy.
Experts say the economy has never recovered from a 2016 shock cancellationof bank notes that forced many small-scale businesses to shut down or theroll-out of a nationwide goods and services tax in 2017.
The opposition Congress Party slammed what it called “failed Modi-nomics”in its comment on the new data.
Mumbai-based economist Ashutosh Datar told AFP the latest figures were “areaffirmation of how serious and damaging the slowdown is”.
“The only message for the Modi government is that it should avoid any moremisadventures like demonetisation,” he said, warning, “the worst may not beover yet.”
Earlier this month New Delhi shelved a controversial report citing “dataquality” issues after leaked figures showed that per capita spending hadslumped for the first time in four decades.
The unpublished National Statistical Office data showed that rural spendingon essential items such as cereals plunged 20 percent between July 2017 andJune 2018, the Business Standard newspaper reported.
In a note released before the GDP figures were announced, India Ratings andResearch (Ind-Ra) agency said it expected annual growth to come in at 5.6percent, lower than the 5.8 percent estimated by Moody’s and the 6.1percent projected by the central bank.
“Even the festive demand has failed to revive (the economy) and this isreflected in the current data”, Ind-Ra said in a statement.
Analysts say India’s economy needs to grow at 8 percent to create jobs forthe 1.2 million Indians entering the labour market each month. -APP/AFP