ISLAMABAD:  Pakistan’s textile mills have placed orders for substantial quantities of cotton from the United States and Brazil even before the local ginning season begins, marking a historic first for the industry.

Industry sources confirm that mills purchased around 206,100 bales, nearly 95 percent of the 216,000 bales of US cotton sold in a recent week from the 2026-27 crop. Imports from Brazil are also accelerating to secure supplies amid depleting local stocks.

This development highlights deepening challenges in domestic cotton production, which has fallen to around 5 million bales in recent seasons — a 40-year low compared to historical peaks of 14-15 million bales.

The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) has noted the urgency of these imports as local prices climb to record levels and stocks run low. Mills traditionally rely on domestic output, but consistent shortfalls have forced earlier and larger international purchases.

**Official Context**

The Ministry of National Food Security and Research has acknowledged production pressures, citing multiple seasons of below-target output. Punjab, the largest producing province, saw output drop sharply, while Sindh recorded more moderate declines.

Experts point to a combination of factors including climate variability, water scarcity, pest attacks such as pink bollworm and whitefly, and outdated seed varieties. Farmers have increasingly shifted to more profitable crops like sugarcane due to better returns and lower risks.

**Key Figures**

Pakistan’s cotton consumption by textile mills stands at approximately 10-11 million bales annually. With domestic production hovering near 5 million bales, the import gap has widened significantly.

Imports from Brazil reached 327,866 tonnes in the first seven months of the 2024/25 season, a 99 percent increase year-on-year. Brazil now supplies around 24 percent of Pakistan’s cotton imports.

Overall cotton import forecasts for 2025/26 stand at 5.6 million bales. The textile sector’s import bill for cotton has previously crossed $2.5-3 billion in challenging years.

Textile exports, however, showed resilience in the first quarter of 2024/25, recording the highest levels since September 2022 despite input cost pressures.

**Background**

Cotton has long anchored Pakistan’s economy, supporting millions of farmers and contributing heavily to textile exports, which form the backbone of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. Production peaked in earlier decades but has declined steadily over the past 20 years due to structural issues in the value chain.

Successive governments have launched revival initiatives, including seed quality improvement programmes and pest management campaigns, yet results have remained inconsistent. The shift to Bt cotton varieties helped initially but faced challenges from evolving pests and climate stresses.

**Reactions and Impact**

Textile industry stakeholders express concern over rising input costs and supply uncertainty. Higher cotton prices are transmitting through the value chain, affecting yarn, fabric, and garment competitiveness in international markets.

Farmers in core cotton zones report lower profitability, leading to reduced acreage. Ginning factories have seen closures or reduced operations, with nearly half reported inactive in some assessments due to low arrivals.

Regional buyers of Pakistani textiles are monitoring supply chain stability, while diplomatic and trade channels with the US and Brazil have facilitated smoother import procedures.

**Strategic Implications**

The early imports underscore the need for urgent measures to revive domestic production capacity. Industry analysts suggest that without improved seed technology, better water management, and attractive support prices, reliance on imports will likely persist.

Future developments may include enhanced public-private partnerships for research and potential policy adjustments ahead of the next sowing season. The textile sector’s ability to maintain export momentum will depend on managing this raw material gap effectively.

Questions remain on how quickly production can recover and whether structural reforms can reduce vulnerability to global price fluctuations in the coming years.