*ISLAMABAD – The economic vision of upcoming prime minister Imran Khan isalluring. He aims to fight corruption, reform government spending andimprove the lives of the poor. Given the demands that are likely to comewith any bailout of the $300 billion economy, that’s fanciful.*

Khan’s ambitions echo those of Pakistan’s larger neighbours. ChinesePresident Xi Jinping has led an aggressive anti-corruption campaign andIndia’s Narendra Modi was elected with a similar pledge.

Khan has a weaker mandate, needs to form a coalition, and has fewerfinancial resources at his disposal.

The World Bank sees the economy growing at just five percent in the currentfiscal year. Foreign exchange reserves cover barely two months of importsin a country that depends on foreign energy supplies. The central bank hasraised interest rates by 175 basis points this year and the rupee has beendevalued four times since December.

A plan to increase welfare spending more than four-fold is unlikely to beimplemented if Pakistan seeks support from the International Monetary Fund.

The country has tapped the fund more than 10 times in its history. CapitalEconomics reckons any support package will require the rupee to fall byanother 10 percent by the end of the year, and interest rates to riseanother 100 basis points.