*KARACHI: The next government in Pakistan will face myriad challenges fromunsustainable population growth to simmering extremism, all complicated bythe decades-long tussle between civilian and military leadership.*
No matter who is voted into office on July 25, the new rulers will have tomake hard choices, and quickly.
Here’s a rundown of the biggest hurdles Pakistan is facing.*Extremism*
Security has dramatically improved across Pakistan following a militarycrackdown in recent years.
However analysts have long warned that Pakistan is not getting to the rootcauses of extremism, and that the militants can still carry out spectacularattacks — an ability they demonstrate periodically.
That includes during this campaign, with a string of bombings at politicalevents killing 175 people, including the second deadliest militant attackin Pakistan’s history — an Islamic State-claimed blast in Mastung,Balochistan on July 13 which killed 149 people.
Analysts have warned that insurgents may be regrouping and seeking toreassert themselves after years of setbacks.*Economy*
Pakistan’s next government faces growing fears of a balance of paymentscrisis, with speculation mounting it will have to seek its second IMFbailout in five years.
The central bank is burning through foreign reserves and devaluing therupee, including another five-percent dive this week, in a bid to bridge awidening trade deficit.
Pakistan, which has long relied heavily on imports, increased itsprocurement of materials to help build a string of Chinese-backedinfrastructure projects after inking a multi-billion dollar investmentpackage with Beijing — the terms of which are opaque, leading to fears overhow Islamabad will pay for it.
The economy has also been stung by higher oil prices.
Meanwhile, meagre exports such as textiles have taken a hit from cheaperChinese-produced goods, while foreign remittances have also slowed.
The winners of the election will have “limited time” to act, Fitch ratingsagency warned earlier this month.*Population growth*
Pakistan, with its limited family planning, has one of the highest birthrates in Asia at around three children per woman, according to the WorldBank and government figures.
That has led to a fivefold increase of the population since 1960, nowtouching 207 million, draft results from last year’s census show.
The boom is negating hard-won economic and social progress in thedeveloping country, experts have warned.
To add to the problem, discussing contraception in public is taboo inPakistan.
Analysts say unless more is done to slow growth, the country’s naturalresources — particularly drinking water — will not be enough to support thepopulation.*Water shortages*
Pakistan is on the verge of an ecological disaster if authorities do noturgently address looming water shortages, experts say.
Official estimates show that by 2025 the country will be facing an“absolute scarcity” of water, with less than 500 cubic metres available perperson — just one third of the water available in parched Somalia,according to the UN.
Pakistan has massive Himalayan glaciers, rivers, monsoon rains and floods —but just three major water storage basins, compared with more than athousand in South Africa or Canada.
As such, surplus water is quickly lost.
Political initiative will be essential to building infrastructure toreverse the course of the impending crisis. There is also little in the wayof education on water conservation.*Civil/military relations*
Pakistan has spent roughly half its nearly 71-year history under militaryrule, and the imbalance of power in civil-military relations has long beenseen as an impediment to democracy and progress.
Hope surged in 2013 as the country moved through its first ever democratictransition of power.
But since then experts have warned of a “creeping coup” fuelled by tensionsbetween the generals and the government of three-time premier Nawaz Sharif,largely attributed to his desire to assert civilian supremacy and seekwarmer relations with arch-rival India.
The next government will be tasked with meeting the country’s challengeswithout upsetting this delicate balance of power. – APP/AFP