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Can Imran Khan bring Pakistan in from diplomatic cold?

Can Imran Khan bring Pakistan in from diplomatic cold?

ISLAMABAD – Tensions with Afghanistan, faltering relations with the US, andchronically poor ties with India. Pakistan today stands isolated, observerssay, and bringing it back into the fold is a formidable task for its newpremier Imran Khan.

“We have a very big foreign policy challenge right now. If there is onecountry that needs peace and stability right now, it’s Pakistan,” theformer cricket champion said in his victory speech after last month’selection.

Achieving that is not likely to be easy for the first-time PM and foreignaffairs novice who Saturday took the reins of a country that has beenwidely accused of stoking regional insecurity by backing extremists –claims Islamabad has repeatedly denied.

Ties with the US cooled further in January when President Donald Trumpaccused Pakistan of “lies” and “duplicity” in the war on terror, suspendingmilitary assistance worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Khan has repeatedly blamed Pakistan’s participation in the US-ledanti-terror campaign for the surge in terrorism on home soil over the lastdecade.

Now as premier, in a tone noticeably softer than his earlier anti-UScomments, Khan has said he wants a “balanced relationship” instead of”fighting America’s war” in exchange for aid.

Khan has long advocated a negotiated settlement with Islamist insurgents, acommitment that led to criticism that he is soft on militants and earnedhim the nickname “Taliban Khan”.

If not in Washington, he may find a sympathetic ear in Kabul.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has also been pushing for talks with theTaliban, and offered a new, conditional ceasefire on Sunday.

“Imran Khan is very well positioned in building trust again withAfghanistan,” observed Huma Yusuf, an analyst at the Wilson Center inWashington. “He is seen as a fresh face with a credible voice.”

But given the current freeze with Washington, said Yusuf, Pakistan’s “driftfrom the US camp to the China camp will continue”.

– ‘All-weather friends’ –

Beijing has long been Islamabad’s “all-weather friend”, and the strategicrelationship was stepped up with the 2013 launch of the China-PakistanEconomic Corridor (CPEC), a multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projectthat is part of Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative.

The alliance is widely considered Pakistan’s most important, and Khan hasvowed to strengthen it further.

But CPEC deals are opaque, and amid fears about Pakistan’s ability to repayChinese loans, his party has vowed more transparency.

That may be difficult in a country where any criticism that may hurt tieswith Beijing is considered taboo.

“The new government will try to avoid any embarrassment linked with CPEC,”said Andrew Small, an expert on China-Pakistan relations.

The stakes are high as Khan’s nascent government must act quickly to averta looming balance of payments crisis, and most analysts agree that Pakistanwill need a loan from abroad.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has bailed Pakistan outrepeatedly in recent decades, is one option.

But Washington, its main contributor, has voiced concerns about Fund moneybeing used to repay Pakistan’s debt to China, and could dictate strictterms.

Some in Pakistan have suggested Beijing itself could come to the rescue butSmall warned there may be a limit to China’s largesse.

– ‘Pakistan first’ –

It is arch-rival India which remains Pakistan’s biggest foreign policychallenge, however.

The nuclear-armed rivals have fought three wars since the end of Britishrule in 1947, including two over Kashmir, the vast Himalayan territory thatis claimed by both.

But reaching out to New Delhi is a path fraught with risk for civilianleaders in Pakistan, where foreign and defence policies are dominated bythe powerful military.

Many analysts believe former premier Nawaz Sharif’s strong advocacy forbetter India ties earned him the wrath of the military.

It also prompted vociferous criticism from Khan, who accused Sharif oftrying to please India at the expense of Pakistan’s interests.

Khan’s charged anti-India statements prompted many in both countries topredict that ties could suffer under his leadership.

“I was a little saddened by the way the Indian media portrayed me, as ifI’m a villain in a Bollywood film,” the new PM acknowledged in his victoryspeech.

But in an apparent about-turn after his poll victory, Khan has advocatedpeace as the only way forward.

“Pakistan and India must dialogue and resolve their conflicts inclKashmir… and start trading”, he tweeted on Tuesday.

In the end, observers say, the extent to which Khan can influencePakistan’s foreign policy will depend on what the military deems acceptable.

His new foreign minister, the high-profile Shah Mehmood Qureshi, brushedoff that idea, saying that foreign policy would be made “in the foreignoffice”.

But analyst Pervez Hoodbhoy said that in terms of international affairs, “Idon’t expect anything significant” from Khan.

“This is not for him to decide.” – APP/AFP