DUBAI – Will it be Imran Khan all the way in today’s general election?Probably yes, if the recent political developments are any indication, GulfNews has reported.

But he is unlikely to garner an absolute majority. The other two majorplayers, Shahbaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, are still in the game.We believe Pakistan is heading towards another coalition government with noparty securing a clear majority form the national government.

Emotions have overtaken rationale in the run-up to the elections. Thecontest between the three major political parties has heated up with ImranKhan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) enjoying a definite edge. The threerecent terror attacks during election rallies have cast a pall of gloomover the campaign as leaders of most political parties are on the hit-listof terrorists.

There are more than 105.9 million voters in Pakistan, and that include 19.7million young new voters, who mostly support Imran. Voters are likely tofavour Imran because they have tried the leaders of other two mainstreamparties — Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz(PML-N). Imran’s mantra of the fight against corruption has resonated wellwith the voters.

Today’s election differs in many ways. Polls are generally verycompetitive, full of activities, passion and energy, but the presentcampaign has been lacklustre. More often it appeared to be a one-horserace. With former prime minister Nawaz Sharif behind bars and PPP’s Zardarifamily fighting cases in courts, Imran has emerged the front-runner. TheSupreme Court has cleared Imran in a case over his assets, burnishing hiscredibility. His political philosophy complements the state policy, andthat makes him a good candidate for the premiership.

A top state agency predicted 116 seats for Imran’s PTI and only 57 seatsfor the PML, led by Nawaz Sharif. The leaked information gave only 40-oddseats for former President Zardari’s party. Analysts, however, are cautiousin their estimates. They forecast around 90 seats for PTI and 70 seats forPML-N in the National Assembly of 272 seats. The PML-N strategists claimthat their party will gain sympathy vote and will win more seat than thePTI. They are banking on the July 13 return of Nawaz Sharif and Maryam andtheir subsequent arrest to swing the sympathy vote. And they are sure offorming the provincial government of Punjab with a convincing majority.

The estimates and surveys differ, but the majority are of the view that PTIwill form a coalition government with the help of 50-odd members ofBaluchistan, FATA (formerly Federally Administered Area) and Karachi. Theseareas have faced military operations in the previous years so the pollwinners will support Imran because of his tilt towards the state policy.

This election is a game changer as well because new political forces haveeclipsed the old political groups and parties. PTI has taken the place ofPPP in Punjab as the main rival of PML-N. Similarly, the urban Sindh party,MQM (representing Urdu speaking population) is in tatters, having splitinto three groups. Whoever wins urban Sindh’s 20 seats will support Imran.

MQM had reigned supreme in urban Sindh since 1988. Despite a 30-yearwinning streak, the party is merely a provincial pressure group fomentingviolence in Karachi, the economic hub of the country. Military operationshave dismantled the violent elements in MQM and its well-knit organisation.The party is trying to save its face by even excluding their founder AltafHussain.