India US Deepening Ties: Why Pakistan needs to be Watchful to avoid  Strategic Surprise?

ISLAMABAD: Recent developments in India-US relations, marked by a swift trade agreement and strategic alignments, should raise concerns in Pakistan over potential shifts in regional power dynamics. Following a phone conversation between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Washington announced a trade deal slashing tariffs on Indian goods from 25 per cent to 18 per cent, while India committed to reducing barriers on US products toward zero and halting purchases of Russian oil. This pact, coinciding with India's participation in a US-led critical minerals ministerial, underscores a rapid rapprochement that could marginalise Pakistan's traditional strategic positioning vis-à-vis Washington.

The trade deal emerged amid escalating pressures from the Trump administration on India's energy sourcing. India had faced additional 25 per cent tariffs for continuing Russian oil imports, which funded Moscow's efforts in Ukraine. Under the new arrangement, India pledged to cease such purchases and redirect toward US energy supplies, potentially including Venezuelan crude as an alternative. Trump highlighted this shift as contributing to ending the Ukraine conflict, while India agreed to procure over 500 billion dollars worth of American energy, technology, agricultural goods, and coal. This move aligns with broader US objectives to diversify global energy away from adversarial suppliers.

India's exclusion of Russian oil reflects sustained US leverage through tariffs and sanctions threats. Data from previous years showed India as a major buyer of discounted Russian crude post-2022, but recent commitments indicate a pivot. The agreement also involves India potentially resuming Venezuelan oil imports, following US signals to resume trade after earlier restrictions. This redirection serves US interests in controlling alternative energy flows and reducing reliance on non-aligned sources, positioning India as a key partner in Washington's energy security architecture.

A notable exclusion in the US critical minerals ministerial, held in Washington and attended by India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, was Pakistan. The event focuses on supply chain resilience, clean energy transitions, and cooperation in critical minerals like lithium and rare earths to counter China's dominance. Despite Pakistan's outreach showcasing its mineral reserves and signing agreements with US firms, it received no invitation, unlike India, a member of the Minerals Security Partnership. This snub highlights selective US engagement in South Asia, prioritising reliable partners over others.

India's strategic concessions extend to infrastructure projects influenced by US pressure. Funding for Iran's Chabahar port, vital for India's access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, dropped to zero in the 2026-27 budget. Previously allocated hundreds of crores, the project faced US sanctions revival under Trump, with waivers extended only until April 2026. Reports suggest India is adopting a tactical pause or middle path to avoid further tariffs, potentially diluting its independent outreach to Iran amid closer US alignment.

These developments suggest a recalibration in India's foreign policy toward greater convergence with US priorities, including countering China through supply chains and energy diversification. India's participation in US-led forums and tariff concessions indicate efforts to secure economic advantages and strategic leverage. By aligning on critical issues like Russian oil and minerals, New Delhi appears to neutralise penalties while gaining preferential access, potentially at the expense of regional competitors.

For Pakistan, this evolving dynamic poses multifaceted challenges. Historically, Islamabad has maintained defence and economic ties with Washington, yet recent exclusions from key forums signal diminished priority. The India-US pact could erode Pakistan's leverage in great-power competition, particularly as India strengthens its role in Indo-Pacific frameworks. Enhanced US-India cooperation in critical technologies and minerals may limit Pakistan's space in global supply chains, especially given its own mineral potential remains untapped in such alliances.

Geopolitically, the alignment risks amplifying asymmetries in South Asia. India's zero-tariff commitments on US goods and energy pivots could bolster its economic resilience against regional pressures, while Pakistan faces scrutiny over governance and reliability in US eyes. The absence from critical minerals discussions underscores a broader pattern where strategic trust influences invitations, potentially isolating Pakistan further in multilateral initiatives aimed at reducing China's influence.

However, It is also believed the wilfull surrender of Indian PM Modi over Russian oil purchase, Backtracking from the Iran Chahbahar Port, Agreeing to zero tarrifs for American goods in India and buying the Venzeuala oil from US may be the deliberate steps to rein in US President Trump in Indian traditional foreign policy loop. In previous tenures India and US had tradition strategic ties and was considered as a strong ally of US in Indo Pacific region depicted in the form of allinaces like QUAD and US India Strategic Defence Agreement.

On the other hand, US President Trump has the personality cult in which he pressurises the World leaders and even his friends like Elon Musk and gets his desired tasks done and then again befriends them. Trump has been mocking India and Trump over the India Pakistan ceasefire and with mentions of Figher jets down. It can be predicted that in future Trump and Modi may develop a good chemistry which may emerge as a strategic surprise for Pakistan. Analysts also believe that bromance with Pakistan may have been a tactic by Trump to pressure Modi over the desired deals and once achieved the bromance may shift towards Modi and Pakistan may only be left to be forced to participate in Gaza International Force to disarm Hamas.

Pakistan must adopt watchful measures to safeguard its interests. Diversifying partnerships, accelerating domestic mineral development, and engaging constructively with global powers remain essential. Strengthening ties with China through CPEC and exploring alternative energy sources could mitigate risks from US-India convergence. Diplomatic efforts to highlight mutual interests with Washington, particularly in counter-terrorism and regional stability, may help restore balance.

The rapid pace of India-US rapprochement under Modi and Trump illustrates transactional diplomacy's impact. While benefiting bilateral trade and energy security, it raises questions about equitable regional engagement. Pakistan's response should prioritise strategic autonomy, economic reforms, and proactive outreach to prevent marginalisation in an evolving global order shaped by great-power alignments.

Chabahar Port

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