ISLAMABAD: Recent developments in India-US relations, marked by a swifttrade agreement and strategic alignments, should raise concerns in Pakistanover potential shifts in regional power dynamics. Following a phoneconversation between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime MinisterNarendra Modi, Washington announced a trade deal slashing tariffs on Indiangoods from 25 per cent to 18 per cent, while India committed to reducingbarriers on US products toward zero and halting purchases of Russian oil.This pact, coinciding with India’s participation in a US-led criticalminerals ministerial, underscores a rapid rapprochement that couldmarginalise Pakistan’s traditional strategic positioning vis-à-visWashington.
The trade deal emerged amid escalating pressures from the Trumpadministration on India’s energy sourcing. India had faced additional 25per cent tariffs for continuing Russian oil imports, which funded Moscow’sefforts in Ukraine. Under the new arrangement, India pledged to cease suchpurchases and redirect toward US energy supplies, potentially includingVenezuelan crude as an alternative. Trump highlighted this shift ascontributing to ending the Ukraine conflict, while India agreed to procureover 500 billion dollars worth of American energy, technology, agriculturalgoods, and coal. This move aligns with broader US objectives to diversifyglobal energy away from adversarial suppliers.
India’s exclusion of Russian oil reflects sustained US leverage throughtariffs and sanctions threats. Data from previous years showed India as amajor buyer of discounted Russian crude post-2022, but recent commitmentsindicate a pivot. The agreement also involves India potentially resumingVenezuelan oil imports, following US signals to resume trade after earlierrestrictions. This redirection serves US interests in controllingalternative energy flows and reducing reliance on non-aligned sources,positioning India as a key partner in Washington’s energy securityarchitecture.
A notable exclusion in the US critical minerals ministerial, held inWashington and attended by India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar,was Pakistan. The event focuses on supply chain resilience, clean energytransitions, and cooperation in critical minerals like lithium and rareearths to counter China’s dominance. Despite Pakistan’s outreach showcasingits mineral reserves and signing agreements with US firms, it received noinvitation, unlike India, a member of the Minerals Security Partnership.This snub highlights selective US engagement in South Asia, prioritisingreliable partners over others.
India’s strategic concessions extend to infrastructure projects influencedby US pressure. Funding for Iran’s Chabahar port, vital for India’s accessto Afghanistan and Central Asia, dropped to zero in the 2026-27 budget.Previously allocated hundreds of crores, the project faced US sanctionsrevival under Trump, with waivers extended only until April 2026. Reportssuggest India is adopting a tactical pause or middle path to avoid furthertariffs, potentially diluting its independent outreach to Iran amid closerUS alignment.
These developments suggest a recalibration in India’s foreign policy towardgreater convergence with US priorities, including countering China throughsupply chains and energy diversification. India’s participation in US-ledforums and tariff concessions indicate efforts to secure economicadvantages and strategic leverage. By aligning on critical issues likeRussian oil and minerals, New Delhi appears to neutralise penalties whilegaining preferential access, potentially at the expense of regionalcompetitors.
For Pakistan, this evolving dynamic poses multifaceted challenges.Historically, Islamabad has maintained defence and economic ties withWashington, yet recent exclusions from key forums signal diminishedpriority. The India-US pact could erode Pakistan’s leverage in great-powercompetition, particularly as India strengthens its role in Indo-Pacificframeworks. Enhanced US-India cooperation in critical technologies andminerals may limit Pakistan’s space in global supply chains, especiallygiven its own mineral potential remains untapped in such alliances.
Geopolitically, the alignment risks amplifying asymmetries in South Asia.India’s zero-tariff commitments on US goods and energy pivots could bolsterits economic resilience against regional pressures, while Pakistan facesscrutiny over governance and reliability in US eyes. The absence fromcritical minerals discussions underscores a broader pattern where strategictrust influences invitations, potentially isolating Pakistan further inmultilateral initiatives aimed at reducing China’s influence.
However, It is also believed the wilfull surrender of Indian PM Modi overRussian oil purchase, Backtracking from the Iran Chahbahar Port, Agreeingto zero tarrifs for American goods in India and buying the Venzeuala oilfrom US may be the deliberate steps to rein in US President Trump in Indiantraditional foreign policy loop. In previous tenures India and US hadtradition strategic ties and was considered as a strong ally of US in IndoPacific region depicted in the form of allinaces like QUAD and US IndiaStrategic Defence Agreement.
On the other hand, US President Trump has the personality cult in which hepressurises the World leaders and even his friends like Elon Musk and getshis desired tasks done and then again befriends them. Trump has beenmocking India and Trump over the India Pakistan ceasefire and with mentionsof Figher jets down. It can be predicted that in future Trump and Modi maydevelop a good chemistry which may emerge as a strategic surprise forPakistan. Analysts also believe that bromance with Pakistan may have been atactic by Trump to pressure Modi over the desired deals and once achievedthe bromance may shift towards Modi and Pakistan may only be left to beforced to participate in Gaza International Force to disarm Hamas.
Pakistan must adopt watchful measures to safeguard its interests.Diversifying partnerships, accelerating domestic mineral development, andengaging constructively with global powers remain essential. Strengtheningties with China through CPEC and exploring alternative energy sources couldmitigate risks from US-India convergence. Diplomatic efforts to highlightmutual interests with Washington, particularly in counter-terrorism andregional stability, may help restore balance.
The rapid pace of India-US rapprochement under Modi and Trump illustratestransactional diplomacy’s impact. While benefiting bilateral trade andenergy security, it raises questions about equitable regional engagement.Pakistan’s response should prioritise strategic autonomy, economic reforms,and proactive outreach to prevent marginalisation in an evolving globalorder shaped by great-power alignments.
Chabahar Port
ogimageimage-name