ISLAMABAD: United States President Donald Trump has asserted that India hassignificantly reduced its purchases of Russian oil due to American tariffpressures, describing Prime Minister Narendra Modi as aware of hisdissatisfaction and eager to maintain favourable relations. Speaking toreporters aboard Air Force One on January 4, 2026, Trump stated thatWashington could swiftly increase tariffs on Indian goods if New Delhi doesnot further assist in isolating Russian energy exports. This developmenthighlights ongoing tensions in Indo-US trade relations amid the protractedRussia-Ukraine conflict.
Trump’s remarks followed comments from Senator Lindsey Graham, who revealedthat India’s ambassador to the United States had recently sought tariffrelief, citing reduced Russian oil imports. Graham noted that existing 50percent tariffs, imposed in August 2025 as a penalty for Russian crudepurchases, have effectively prompted India to curtail its imports. Trumpemphasised that Modi “knew I was not happy” and that it was “important tomake me happy,” underscoring the leverage provided by bilateral trade.
Data from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry indicate that Russianoil imports reached a six-month high of 7.7 million tonnes in November2025, comprising 35.1 percent of total crude imports. However, subsequentreports from analytics firms such as Kpler suggest a sharp decline inDecember 2025, with arrivals falling to approximately 1.1 to 1.2 millionbarrels per day, the lowest in three years. This represents a roughly 40percent drop from the June 2025 peak of around 2 million barrels per day.
The reduction coincides with intensified US sanctions on Russian oilentities and threats of secondary tariffs. Indian refiners have reportedlybegun disclosing weekly purchase data to authorities, facilitatingnegotiations for a potential bilateral trade agreement. Simultaneously,imports of American crude rose to a seven-month high in November 2025,accounting for nearly 13 percent of India’s total oil intake.
Trump’s administration has consistently linked Russian oil revenues tofunding Moscow’s military efforts in Ukraine. The president previouslyclaimed in October 2025 that Modi had assured him India would halt Russianpurchases, though Indian officials denied any such commitment. The current50 percent tariffs, combining reciprocal and punitive measures, remainamong the highest imposed on any nation.
Analysts attribute the recent import decline to stricter enforcement ofsanctions and tariff deterrence. Sources indicate that Russian supplies maydip below 1 million barrels per day in early 2026, prompting refiners todiversify towards Middle Eastern, Latin American, and West African sources.Despite this, some projections suggest a gradual rebound throughalternative supply channels offering discounted rates.
The episode illustrates the complex interplay of energy security,geopolitical alignments, and trade economics for India, the world’sthird-largest oil importer. New Delhi has maintained that its energypolicies prioritise consumer interests in a volatile global market,rejecting accusations of indirectly supporting Russia’s war economy.
Trump’s renewed warning signals potential escalation if imports do notfurther diminish, even as bilateral talks continue. The outcome couldinfluence broader Indo-US strategic partnerships, including defence andtechnology cooperation.
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This situation underscores the effectiveness of tariff instruments in USforeign policy, as acknowledged by Senator Graham, who advocated for evensteeper measures up to 500 percent on persistent buyers of Russian energy.
Overall, the evolving dynamics reflect a strategic recalibration in India’senergy sourcing amid sustained international pressure.
Source:https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-warns-higher-tariffs-india-over-russian-oil-purchases-2026-01-05/
Tags: Donald Trump, Narendra Modi, Russian Oil, US Tariffs, India, Russia,Ukraine War
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