ISLAMABAD – Because of their often problematic relations, it is natural forIndia and Pakistan to seek divergent allies. In the Cold War era, theirchoices were apparent and easy. Pakistan joined two regional defense pactspatronized by the United States to contain communism.
India followed a non-aligned policy to begin with, but signed a Treaty ofPeace, Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union in 1971. Indo-USrelations witnessed a brief period of warmth after the Sino-Indian War of1962, but Jawaharlal Nehru’s India did not want to be tagged to anysuperpower.
International relations are often dictated by the cold logic of nationalinterests and the balance of power. While Pakistan opted for allies in theWest, India chose the Soviet Union to balance the power of China. All thatstarted changing after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the riseof India as a regional power.
In 2008, India and the United States finalized a civil nuclear cooperationdeal and the superpower has since worked assiduously to get India covetedmembership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). This move has beensuccessfully countered by China thus far on the basis that Pakistan hasidentical credentials and should be similarly treated by the NSG.
The year 2014 was seminal, as it was when these evolving equations came toassume definitive shapes. It was in this year that the US replaced Russiaas India’s top arms supplier.
The same year, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu visited Pakistan andsigned a defense cooperation deal. This was the first such visit fromMoscow to Islamabad in 45 years. Both nations held military exercises in2016 and 2017, while Russia is currently building a 1,100 kilometer-longgas pipeline between Karachi and Lahore.
Pakistan’s relationship with China is flourishing but Islamabad does notwant to keep all its eggs in Beijing’s basket, while Sino-Indiancompetition is likely to evolve into rivalry in the not too distant future.
Some 63 percent of the total military hardware imported by Pakistan todaycomes from China and only 19 percent from the US.
China has also helped Pakistan in the field of nuclear energy and was thefirst country to agree to co-produce advanced military aircraft and otherweapons systems with Pakistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is theflagship project of China’s major investments in many countries under itsOne Belt One Road Initiative.
Tensions in the South China Sea have increased CPEC’s importance for theChinese and this $50 billion-plus investment in Pakistan stands out, as USannual assistance has shrunk to a couple of billion dollars. US PresidentDonald Trump’s recent decision to suspend military assistance to Pakistanhas, therefore, not created too many ripples in Islamabad
This tough stance by the US due to the precarious security situation inAfghanistan may push Pakistan further toward China and Russia.All recent US presidents, including Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and BarackObama, were India-friendly, but they made it a point not to push Pakistantoo hard.
That sanguine policy has unfortunately been abandoned by Trump. ThePakistani leadership does not want to keep all its eggs in the Chinesebasket, but the US administration has failed to read that nuance ofPakistani thinking.
There can be no lasting peace in Afghanistan without Pakistan’sco-operation; therefore any further deterioration of Pak-US ties willimpact negatively on regional peace.Both Russia and China realize India’s importance and want to keep it ingood humor as much as possible.
The Kremlin played a key role in facilitating India’s entry into theShanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Similarly, China, India’s majortrading partner, did not block a resolution in a BRICS meeting thatcondemned proscribed extremist groups in Pakistan. Beijing does not want topush India further under America’s wing.
By: Javed Hafeez