ISLAMABAD – Pakistan’s former adversary Russia is building military,diplomatic and economic ties that could upend historic alliances in theregion and open up a fast-growing gas market for Moscow’s energy companies.
Pakistan had fought Russia in Afghanistan for a decade that ultimatelyresulted in the withdrawal of Russian Forces from Afghanistan andsubsequently it disintegrated.
Russia’s embrace of Pakistan comes at a time when relations between theUnited States and its historical ally are unraveling over the war inAfghanistan, a remarkable turnaround from the 1980s, when Pakistan helpedfunnel weapons and U.S. spies across the border to aid Afghan fightersbattling Soviet troops.
Pakistan and Russia have moved a long way against that animosity and ColdWar.
The Russian stance in favour of Pakistan in last few years and militarydeals are testimony to that emerging relation.
Though the Moscow-Islamabad rapprochement is in its infancy, and it isneighbor China that is filling the growing void left by the United Statesin Pakistan, a slew of energy deals and growing military cooperationpromise to spark life into the Russia-Pakistan relationship that was deadfor many decades.
“It is an opening,” Khurram Dastgir Khan, Pakistan’s defense minister, toldReuters. “Both countries have to work through the past to open the door tothe future.”
The cozier diplomatic ties have so far focused on Afghanistan, where Russiahas cultivated ties to the Afghan Taliban militants who are fighting U.S.troops and have historic links to Islamabad. Moscow says it is encouragingpeace negotiations.
Both Russia and Pakistan are also alarmed by the presence of Islamic State(IS) inside Afghanistan, with Moscow concerned the group’s fighters couldspread towards central Asia and closer to home. In Pakistan, IS has alreadycarried out major attacks.
“We have common ground on most issues at diplomatic levels,” Pakistan’sPrime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi told Reuters. “It’s a relationship thatwill grow substantially in the future.”
During a trip to Moscow last month by Pakistan’s foreign minister, KhawajaAsif, the two countries announced plans to establish a commission onmilitary cooperation to combat the threat of IS in the region.
They also agreed to continue annual military training exercises that beganin 2016 and followed the sale of four Russian attack helicopters toPakistan, as well as the purchase of Russian engines for the Pakistan AirForce’s JF-17 fighter jets that Pakistan’s military assembles on its ownsoil.
The detente has been watched with suspicion by Pakistan’s neighbor andarch-foe India, which broadly stood in the Soviet camp during the Cold Warera. In the last two decades, the close Russia-India relationship has beenunderpinned by huge arms sales by Moscow to a country it calls a “strategicpartner”.
“If the Russians start backing the Pakistanis in a big way at the politicallevel, then it creates a problem for us,” said Sushant Sareen, a leadingexpert on India’s relations to Pakistan and Afghanistan with NewDelhi-based Observer Research Foundation.
India’s foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment onRussia’s ties with Pakistan, but has previously said that its own relationswith Moscow have stood the test of time, and that the two nations arebuilding up defense and energy relations, including collaboration onnuclear reactors in India.
PIVOTING EAST
Russian overtures to Pakistan offer a badly needed diplomatic lifeline forthe South Asian nation as it faces growing friction with Western powersover its alleged links to militants.
At U.S. urging, and with backing from Britain, France and Germany, a globalfinancial watchdog, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), last monthdecided to place Pakistan back on its watchlist of countries withinadequate terrorist-financing controls, potentially hurting Pakistan’sfragile economy.
The U.S. move, which Islamabad angrily dismissed as an effort to”embarrass” Pakistan, followed Washington’s announcement in January tosuspend $2 billion in military assistance.
Asif, Pakistan’s foreign minister, said his nation made a historical errorby “tilting 100 percent” to the West and was now eager build alliancescloser to home with the likes of China, Russia and Turkey.
“We want to correct the imbalance of our foreign policy over 70 years,”Asif told Reuters. “We are not divorcing that relationship (with the West).But we want to have a balance in our relationships, we want to be closer toour friends in our region.”
Defence minister Khan said Pakistan’s military, which has historically beenheavily reliant on U.S. weapons and aircraft, may have no choice but toramp up purchases from the likes of Russia.
The cooling relationship with Washington is already pushing Islamabadcloser to China, which is investing about $60 billion in infrastructure inPakistan. But analysts say Pakistan is wary of becoming overly dependentdiplomatically on Beijing.
Pakistan is among several nations that have been courted by Moscow afterfalling out with Washington, including the Philippines and Qatar, butRussia’s long-term aims for the Pakistan relationship are unclear,according to Petr Topychkanov, a senior researcher at the StockholmInternational Peace Research Institute.
“It’s not very transparent, even in Russia,” he said. “There is no seriouspublic debate, there is no detailed explanation to the Russian public aboutwhat Russia wants in Pakistan.”
Russia’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request forcomment about Moscow’s increasingly close relations with Pakistan.
ENERGY DEALS
Russia and Pakistan are negotiating potential energy deals worth in excessof $10 billion, according to Pakistani energy officials.
Asif said four to five huge power projects “will cement our relationshipfurther”.
Russia last month appointed an honorary council in the Pakistan’s northernKhyber Pukhtunkhwa province, where its companies are in talks to build anoil refinery and a power station.
But the biggest deals focus on gas supply and infrastructure to Pakistan,one of the world’s fastest growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) importmarkets.
“On a strategic basis, Russia is coming in very fast on the energy side,”said a senior Pakistani energy official.
In October, Pakistan and Russia signed an inter-governmental agreement(IGA) on energy, paving the way for Russian state-giant Gazprom to enternegotiations to supply LNG to Pakistan.
The talks are expected to conclude within three months and Gazprom isconsidered “one of the front-runners” to clinch a long-term supply deal,according to the Pakistani official. Based on two monthly LNG cargodeliveries, that deal would be worth about $9 billion over 15 years, headded.
There is also growing confidence that a gas pipeline due to be built byRussia, stretching 1,100 km (680 miles) from Lahore to the port city ofKarachi, will go ahead.
U.S. sanctions against Russian state conglomerate Rostec, as well as adispute over North-South pipeline transport fees, have held up the $2billion project since it was signed in 2015.
The North-South pipeline would be the biggest infrastructure deal by Russiasince early 1970s, when Soviet engineers constructed the Pakistan SteelMills industrial complex.
A Russian company, according to defense minister Khan, is eying up a dealto take over the disused Soviet-built steel mills. – Agencies