ISLAMABAD- The Afghan president’s offer to make peace with the Taliban isunlikely to have any immediate impact on the militants or the direction ofa war in which civilians are being increasingly targeted in complex,well-coordinated attacks.Ashraf Ghani’s call for a cease-fire and his proposal to recognize theinsurgent group as a political party may ultimately say more about his ownbeleaguered position and the intractability of a conflict now in its 17thyear than it does about his ability to come up with a new strategy that hasa realistic chance of success.He knows the Taliban have always refused to acknowledge his administration,and the government of his predecessor, Hamid Karzai, as legitimate brokersin any peace negotiations. He must also surely suspect that this stancewill not change now that the militants are openly active in 70 percent ofthe country, according to a recent BBC study.For years the militants have said they are willing to talk — but only withAmerican officials. The US toppled its regime in 2001 and continues tostation 14,000 troops in Afghanistan. As far as the Taliban leadership isconcerned, the last two Afghan presidents have been little more thanWashington’s puppets.Ghani’s speech at the opening of an international summit in Kabul yesterdaywill have played well with many of the dignitaries from the 23 nations inattendance. But Afghans have seen similar gatherings come and go in thepast, and the sense of weariness and anger coursing through the country ismore acute now than at any time since the American-led invasion.In February, the UN reported that more than 10,453 civilians were killed orinjured in Afghanistan during 2017, with 42 percent of casualties caused bythe Taliban. While the total number represented a decrease on the previousyear, 22 percent of the casualties were caused by suicide bombings andother complex insurgent attacks, compared with 17 percent in 2016.Already this year there have been several high-profile attacks in Kabul,including one on Jan. 27 in which at least 95 people died when a suicidebomber driving an ambulance blew himself up in a heavily fortified part ofthe capital. The Taliban claimed responsibility, and its fighters seemintent on exploiting the government’s weakness by ramping up the violencein the weeks and months ahead.Ghani’s offer to recognize the group as a legitimate political force islong overdue — a similar gesture by the US and Afghan governments at thestart of the war may have helped save thousands of lives.The timing of the president’s offer, amid the current wave of bloodshed,hints at his desperation.The Taliban draw most of their strength from ethnic Pashtuns in the southand east of the country, and pockets of the north. While Ghani is himself aPashtun, he has minimal support in what should be his natural heartland.Further complicating any potential peace deal is the growing discordemanating from elements of the old Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance, whichfought the Taliban regime in the 1990s and was the chief beneficiary of itsdemise.Several powerful figures from this coalition of warlords and militiacommanders feel sidelined by Ghani and are holding to their view that theTaliban are simply a proxy army for Pakistan. Rumours that these rogueofficials are plotting a coup, or conspiring to foment violent unrestagainst the government, refuse to go away.At the same time, Daesh has emerged as a small, but potent, force inAfghanistan. The terror group is unable to hold large areas of territory,but has the capacity to carry out devastating suicide bombings in urbancenters and stands ready to embrace any disaffected Taliban fighters whowould oppose signing a peace treaty when their group is in the ascendancy.- Arab News