MOSCOW – As Pakistan navigates its troubled relationship with the UnitedStates and scrambles to avoid being blacklisted for “not taking action onsome of the entities and individuals designated as terrorists by the UN”,regional alliances are shifting — and analysts ponder whether a cozierrelationship with countries like Russia will complicate efforts to movetoward peace in neighboring Afghanistan.
Russia, analysts say, is motivated by fears of a growing presence ofIslamic State militants in neighboring Afghanistan and has warmed up toPakistan as well as to Taliban insurgents battling the upstart IslamicState group affiliate known as Khorasan Province, the ancient name of anarea that once included parts of Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia.
In the latest move to strengthen ties, Russia last week named an honoraryconsul to Khyber Pukhtunkhwa, which borders Nangarhar province in easternAfghanistan, where IS has established its headquarters. The IS is alsopresent in northern Afghanistan’s border regions with Central Asia, causingfurther consternation in Moscow.
Russia’s honorary consul, Mohammad Arsallah Khan, who belongs to a powerfulbusiness family in Pakistan’s northwest, said economic development is thebest weapon against extremism. To that end, he said, he will promoteincreased commerce with Pakistan’s neighbors, including Russia, whichcurrently accounts for barely $500 million in trade.
“I think this whole region is a bit of a mess, which I realize is one ofthe great understatements. Extremists have been taken lightly before and weare where we are because of that,” said Khan in an interview in thePakistani capital, Islamabad. Reflecting on his business-based strategy,Khan said, “when you can give people a way of earning a living, they willturn away from terrorism, away from extremism.”
The appointment reflects a stark turnaround in Pakistan’s historicalrelationship with Russia.
In the 1980s, Pakistan and the US were united against Russia as the SovietUnion sent 150,000 soldiers into Afghanistan to prop up its communist allyin the Afghan capital, Kabul. At the time, Pakistan, with US backing, usedPeshawar as a launching pad against Russia referred to as mujahedeen — oras President Ronald Reagan often called them, “freedom fighters” — to wagewar on Russia. After 10 years, Russia failed to win the war and on February15, 1989, left Afghanistan in a negotiated exit.
For some, Russia’s cozying up to Pakistan is a bit of a “poke in the eye”to the US, still embroiled in the Afghan conflict that is now in its 17thyear and is Washington’s longest war, costing more than $122 billion,according to its own special Inspector General on Afghan Reconstruction.
Still, Petr Topychkanov, a senior researcher at the Stockholm InternationalPeace Research Institute, said Russia worries about the US presence inAfghanistan.
“Russia is concerned about the long-term presence of the US and its alliesin Afghanistan, and therefore it’s in Russia’s long-term interests to havean inside view of the situation in Afghanistan,” he said, saying thatPakistan provides the viewing platform.
Daniel Markey, senior research professor in international relations atJohn’s Hopkins University, said Russian relations with Pakistan aim tosolve two problems for Moscow. First, to blunt the threat of IS fromAfghanistan. Second, to undermine US influence, he said.
“The point is that Russia and Pakistan probably have more in common withrespect to the war in Afghanistan than the United States has with either —and this is a real turnaround from prior history.”
Washington’s senior diplomat for South Asia, Alice Wells, accused Russia ofignoring anti-IS offensives launched by US and Afghan forces in easternAfghanistan, while at the same time pursuing them in new havens,particularly in northern Afghanistan.
Wells suggested Russia “should unequivocally support the Afghan government”if it wants to end the conflict in Afghanistan, a thinly veiled referenceto allegations of support to Taliban. – Agencies