ISLAMABAD – We are in the midst of a hybrid war which is the ‘synchroniseduse of multiple instruments of power tailored to specific vulnerabilitiesacross the full spectrum of societal functions to achieve synergisticeffects.’ The principal objective behind this hybrid war is to weakenPakistan through a synchronised attack that includes economic warfare,supporting domestic unrest, diplomatic onslaught, along with regular andirregular military operations. We need to replace a uni-dimensionalNational Security Strategy focused singularly on military security with asynchronised strategy of a counter attack.
Yes, Budget 2018-19 has increased defence allocation by 10 percent, Rs1.1trillion, while the hike in current expenditures is 20 percent (developmentexpenditure down by 20 percent). Here is an account of a few popular mythsabout our defence budget.
Myth number 1: Our largest expenditure item is defence. Not true. Thelargest expenditure item in the budget is debt-servicing. The secondlargest expenditure, which is deliberately hidden in budget figures, willactually be eaten up by losses of Public Sector Enterprises like PIA, thePakistan Steel Mills, power sector and Pakistan Railways. The third largestchunk will go for the Public Sector Development Programme (federal plusprovincial). And the fourth largest allocation will go towards ‘DefenceAffairs and Services’. Myth number 2: The defence budget takes away thelion’s share of the total budgetary outlay. Not true. In Budget 2018-19,‘Defence Affairs and Services’ will consume around 18 percent of all thegovernment expenditures. What this means is that a full 82 percent of allgovernment expenditures are not defence related.
Myth number 3: The defence budget has been increasing at a high rate. Nottrue. In the financial year 2001-02, 17 years ago, the allocation fordefence amounted to 4.6 percent of GDP. In 2003-04, the defence budgetdropped to 3.9 percent of GDP. Budget 2018-19 has allocated Rs1.1 trillionfor ‘Defence Affairs and Services’ which is 3.2 percent of our Rs34trillion GDP.
Myth number 4: The Pakistan Army consumes almost the entire defence budget.Not true. In the 1960s, Pak Army’s budget as a percentage of our nationalbudget had hit a high of 42 percent. In Budget 2018-19, Pak Army’s budgetas a percentage of our national budget has dropped sharply, and it nowamounts to 9.6 percent.
Myth number 5: Pakistan spends a very high percentage of its GDP ondefence. Not true. There are at least four dozen countries that spend ahigher percentage of their GDPs on defence. They include: India, Egypt, SriLanka, United States, United Kingdom, South Korea, France, Eritrea, Oman,Saudi Arabia, Israel, Jordan, Liberia, Brunei, Syria, Kuwait, Yemen,Angola, Singapore, Greece, Iran, Bahrain, Djibouti, Morocco, Chile,Lebanon, Russia, Colombia, Zimbabwe, Turkey, Georgia, Guinea-Bissau,Ethiopia, Namibia, Guinea, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Algeria, Serbia andMontenegro, Armenia, Botswana, Ukraine, Uganda, Ecuador, Bulgaria, Lesothoand Sudan.
And now the two facts. Fact number 1: The accumulated amount of thecircular debt almost equates the current year’s defence allocation. Andwhat that means is that if we can somehow manage losses within the powersector the savings will cover one year’s defence allocation.
Fact number 2: Pakistan’s armed forces are the 6th largest in the world,but our expenses per soldier are the lowest. The US spends $460,000 persoldier, Saudi Arabia $340,000, India $33,000, Egypt $18,000 and Pakistan$12,000.
BY: Farrukh Saleem. The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.