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Russia returns to Afghanistan in a turning point entry

Russia returns to Afghanistan in a turning point entry

MOSCOW: Decades after the Soviet Union’s disastrous venture intoAfghanistan, Russia is emerging as a major player in the region with tiesto the Taliban and Afghan politicians as US troops withdraw from thecountry.

This week Moscow brought together the Taliban and powerful Afghanpoliticians for two days of unprecedented talks Tuesday and Wednesday, theinsurgents’ most significant engagement with Afghan leaders in recentmemory.

In incredible scenes broadcast around the world, former president HamidKarzai and other leaders shared prayers and meals with the Taliban whilediscussing the future of the conflict-riven country at a hotel that belongsto the Kremlin.

“This is a turning point,” Andrei Serenko, an expert at the Centre forContemporary Afghan Studies, told *AFP*.

“From reacting to other players’ initiatives, Russia has switched togenerating its own initiatives in the region.”

Washington’s decision to draw down troops from Afghanistan in a bid toextricate itself from the nearly 18-year war can become both a boon andbane for Russia, analysts say.

On the one hand, Moscow will burnish its credentials as a major player andmediator in the region; on the other hand, the US withdrawal will increaserisks of instability and violence in Central Asia, seen as Moscow’s sphereof influence.

“Russia is returning to Afghanistan using it as a platform forconfrontation with the United States,” independent expert Arkady Dubnovtold *AFP*.

Dubnov added that Russia was vitally interested in seeing stability andsecurity in the impoverished country’s northern provinces.

While he said Moscow would not send troops to the country given the SovietUnion’s painful experience in Afghanistan, Russia could provide other formsof assistance.

“If there’s a request from the leadership, money and arms supplies cannotbe ruled out,” Dubnov added.

The Soviet Union’s 1979-1989 invasion of Afghanistan has deeply scarred thenation.

The 10-year conflict, which saw Moscow intervene in support of the Afghancommunist government, claimed the lives of more than 14,000 Soviet troops,and has come to be seen in Russia as a huge foreign policy blunder.

“A more involved role for Moscow has surprised many, mostly due to Russia’sbloody history in Afghanistan,” said The Soufan Center, a non-profitsecurity analysis group.

Despite the presence of US troops and support for the government of AshrafGhani, Washington may find itself marginalised in the country as regionalpowers like Russia come to the centre stage, the group said.

While Moscow has sought to distance itself from the conference, calling itan initiative of the Afghan diasporas, few doubt the Kremlin’s deepinvolvement.

Representatives of the Kabul government were not present at the conference.

Instead, the Taliban, who ruled Afghanistan under a ruthless interpretationof Sharia law between 1996 and 2001, sat down for talks with Ghani’s rivalsincluding Mohammad Haneef Atmar as the country prepares to holdpresidential elections in July.

“Moscow does not believe in Ghani’s future,” said Serenko of the Centre forContemporary Afghan Studies, suggesting Russia was backing Atmar in therun-up to the polls.

Serenko also said Moscow used this week’s conference to legitimise itslong-held ties with the Taliban which Russia still designates as aterrorist group.

“For the past ten years Russia has been romantically involved with theTaliban. Now this romance has been made public,” Serenko said.

“Today the Taliban, who only respect force, and Russians speak the samelanguage.”

The Moscow meeting came a week after the insurgents held separate peacetalks with American negotiators in Doha, where Ghani was again not invitedto the table.

Ghani’s allies in Washington insist Afghans should lead the peace process,and ostensibly the months-long push by the US to engage the Taliban hasbeen aimed at convincing them to negotiate with Kabul.

The Russian government also held a meeting on Afghanistan in November.

Some frown upon Russia’s involvement.

“By getting the Afghan opposition to talk to the Taliban, Moscow risksfracturing an already fragile yet fledgeling peace process-and provoking afresh crisis within an Afghan government already riven by deep divisions,”Michael Kugelman, an analyst at the Wilson Center in Washington, told *AFP*.

But organisers of the Moscow conference said Russia’s perceived neutralityduring Washington’s war in Afghanistan made the country well-suited for themediation.

“During the past 18 years, Russia has proved that it supported neither sidein the conflict,” said Ghulam Mohammad Jalal, one of the conference’sorganisers.

“That is why it has earned in Afghan society the status of a neutralcountry with a neutral position.” – APP/AFP