MOSCOW – Having formally cleared the Su-57 for export earlier this month,Russia is poised to pitch their fifth-generation fighter to China.
Speaking at the LIMA-2019 Aerospace and Maritime exhibition, Rostecofficial Viktor Kladov looked to the future of the Sino-Russian arms trade:“China has recently taken delivery of 24 Su-35 aircraft, and in the nexttwo years [China] will make a decision to either procure additional Su-35s,build the Su-35 within China, or to buy a fifth-generation fighteraircraft. This could be another opportunity for the Su-57E.”
It is not yet clear how, or if, the “Su-57E” export variant differs fromthe base Su-57 design; those answers could be forthcoming at this year’sDubai Airshow, hinted Kladov.
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As the Su-57 enters serial production with the first unit to be deliveredlater this year, Rosoboronexport—Russia’s state exporting agency—has begunthe lengthy, complex process of negotiating contracts with majorprospective clients.
At first blush, it does seem somewhat premature for Rosoboronexport to pushthe Su-57 into export markets so early into its production cycle. However,this approach is not without its benefits. First, an early, high-profilecontract with an industry giant like Beijing would have positive spillovereffects in generating market interest from other importers. China’sprospective purchase is already making waves throughout Indian defensecommentary, though whether or not it will warm New Delhi to the Su-57remains to be seen. By the same token, it would reassert the health andcontinued viability of the burgeoning Sino-Russian security relationship.
Secondly, it’s crucial to understand that the Russian military-industrialcomplex is playing a long-term development game with the Su-57. The goal isnot to field numerous Su-57 squadrons or to circulate the Su-57 widelythroughout Russian Aerospace Forces, at least not anytime soon. Rather, theRussian strategy is to establish the Su-57 as a financially solventplatform that will incrementally phase out older aircraft to becomeRussia’s staple air superiority fighter over the coming decades. An exportfocus is crucial to this plan, as the proceeds from Su-57 contracts will bereinvested to further expand Su-57 production, supply, and logistics chains.
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The perceived benefit on Russia’s end is clear, but it’s the Chinese halfof the deal that demands more nuanced analysis. After all, the People’sLiberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is currently developing their ownfifth-generation stealth fighter, the J-20.
It could be argued, though not terribly convincingly, that the J-20 andSu-57 can coexist in the same air force because they serve fundamentallydifferent operational roles. As The National Interest’s David Axe aptlydescribes, the J-20 is “a fast-flying, defense-penetrating missileplatform.” That is, the J-20’s intended role is to slip deep pastsophisticated air defenses in order to target critical infrastructure orland units. This is a completely different design philosophy from theSu-57, an air superiority platform that trades certain stealth and groundattack features for unparalleled dogfighting potential. All that beingsaid, defense analysts are rightly skeptical that the PLAAF is interestedin maintaining a regular Su-57 combat squadron.
The likelier hypothesis, and the one recently floated by Chinese aircraftdesigner Wang Yongqing in an interview with Chinese outlet Global Times, isthat the Chinese are interested in the Su-57 for training and R&D purposes.A deep dive into the Su-57’s design—especially if they get one with themuch-anticipated, second stage Izdeliye 30 engine—could provide Chineseaerospace engineers with insight in ways to improve the J-20’s design orproduction process.
Courtesy: (nationalinterest.org)
