ISLAMABAD – When Nawaz Sharif was back in power in 2013, fourteen yearsafter being ousted in a military coup, many Pakistan-watchers weresurprised. After all, what are the chances of a politician’s return topower after the military ousted them? Sharif achieved this feat, only to bebarred from politics for life in 2017 in a Supreme Court ruling.
Was the world shocked? You would expect major world interest because thiswas a compelling story. After all, he is Pakistan’s only third-time electedprime minister, ousted in a military coup, and once had foreign powers,including the United States, negotiating his release. China, Saudi Arabia,Turkey, the UAE, and the United Kingdom were all involved in Pakistanipolitics in some way during the past 15 years.
But there is little global interest this time. At least not at the scale of1999, the first time Nawaz Sharif was ousted. Even the romantic story ofthe patchy democratic struggle in Pakistan is no longer attractive.
The truth is, there is little international interest left in Pakistanipolitics. The world is moving fast. Regional countries now join big powersin asserting influence. Economic interests are at stake, and a major powerrealignment is underway. The Pakistani political fairytale is becomingboring, and repetitive.
This does not mean Pakistan has lost importance. The country cannot beignored. There is a tectonic shift in politics in this nuclear-armed nationof 200 million. This will have a major bearing on a country that impactssecurity in three crucial regions: South, West, and Central Asia. GoldmanSachs predicts that Pakistan will be among the top 20 economies by 2025.Jim O’Neill, who coined the term BRIC for Brazil, Russia, India, China in2011, forecasts that Pakistan could be the world’s 18th largest economy by2050.
Pakistan is very important. Russia has been courting the country recently.China has made it a linchpin of its Road and Belt Initiative. Major MiddleEastern powers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Turkey want Pakistanto play a key role in training and creating a NATO-style militaryorganization indigenous to the region.
But it is Pakistani politics that has become the butt of jokes in theregion. Pakistan just does not seem to be able to put its house in order.Its political system is too messy for a nuclear power of this size andimportance. And while democracy and politics are messy and noisyeverywhere, the Pakistani version is so chaotic it could harm Pakistan’sregional and international role.
So, apart from some countries and investment banks watching Pakistanipolitics closely, major recent developments have largely gone unnoticedoutside Pakistan. For the first time, three wealthy and powerfulpoliticians have been permanently barred, with possibly more politiciansexpected to be banned from holding public office. A new demographic, theyoung, are asserting influence and could soon change the face of Pakistanipolitics.
But the world will not wait for Pakistan forever. In the coming days, thePakistani foreign minister was expected to join his counterparts fromTurkey and Saudi Arabia in an OIC-EU dialogue on the future of Jerusalem,an upcoming OIC foreign ministers meeting on Kashmir conflict, and apossible meeting with his Indian counterpart on the sidelines of amultilateral event that was in the works and Pakistani and Indian diplomatswere hoping could be an icebreaker. But all of this is in jeopardy nowafter Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif has been ousted by the Supreme Courtfor concealing foreign assets. In the days preceding his ouster, Asifinteracted with top diplomats from the United States, Russia, and China.
So, Pakistan is a country that is readjusting its political system to suitnew realities. But it is a painfully slow process that is costing Pakistanmuch in terms of its national security interests. While Pakistan is busyinwards, significant developments are shaping the region around Pakistan,from Syria to Myanmar, and Islamabad appears too busy to play a role insecuring its interests in this regional flux.
BY: Ahmed Qureshi