The United States Strategic Game Plan in Afghanistan
Is US really interested in Afghanistan peace process ?
Afghan Taliban Commander Mullah Mansoor Akhtar was hit by a deadly drone strike on May 22 in Baluchistan area of Pakistan while on his return from Iran.
With the death of Mullah Akhtar Mansoor the prospects of the Afghanistan peace process have virtually diminished.
Afghanistan supreme council appointed Moulvi Haibutullah Akhunzada as their new Supreme Commander with Siraj ud din Haqqani and son of their founder Mullah Muhammad Umer, Mullah Muhammad yakoob as his two deputies.
The new Afghan Taliban Commander announced to seize the peace talks and vowed to retaliate against Afghanistan government.
With this announcement of Afghan Taliban the Quadrilateral Contact Group QCG peace efforts comprising of Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and US have been placed at the back burner by the Afghan Taliban new Commander, at least for the near future.
Is Afghanistan going to descent into yet another chaos and instability?
The Afghanistan quagmire is further going to deepen and things are going to be complex again.
The question arises why every time when there seems to be chances of peace process progressing, some kind of breaking news virtually breaks the peace process.
Afghanistan peace process was moving smoothly but obviously slowly with the Murree peace process organised by QCG when suddenly the news of the death of the Mullah Umer was intentionally leaked out and the peace process was halted and the violence triggered with the news.
However it is pertinent to mention here that it was under the leadership of the Mullah Akhtar Mansoor that Afghan Taliban were participating in the QCG peace process and the things were reaching at that level where at least in near future Kabul was going to be declared as the "No Conflict Zone".
It was largely suspected that rogue elements within Afgahnsiatn premier Intelligence agency National Directorate of Security (NDS) with the blessings of it's patron Ex. Afghan President Hamid Karzai broke the three year old news of death of Mullah Umer which seized the peace process.
Yet again the drone strike on May 22 on Mullah Akhtar Mansoor was a drone attack on Afghanistan peace process.
Why US does not want peace in Afghanistan ?
US wants to keep its presence in Afghanistan and peace in Afghanistan will not provide any reason for a large military presence of US Forces in Afghanistan.
But why US wants to keep its presence in Afghanistan ?
US had long been following the containment policy during the cold war era against Russia and the similar policy is being followed for the World rising super power China.
1. US would like to stay in Afghanistan to have on eye on China’s western expansion.
3. Along with presence in Afghanistan it can easily operate it's bases in Central Asian Republics hence keeping an eye on Russian expansion in CAR.
5. The increasing economical and strategical interest of China in Afghanistan is another contributing factor to this.
6. Afghanistan's and CAR huge untapped natural reservoirs may also be another attractive offer for the US.
7. With its presence in Afghanistan the China Pakistan Economic Corridor CPEC project along with the Baluchistan province remain under US vigil.
8. As in case of Iraq the residual forces were utilised for the next war, similarly US would keep its presence in the Afghanistan to be ready for any future conflict in the region either natural or self created.
9. Indian factor is another reason for its prolonged stay in Afghanistan as India fear that if US left Afghanistan at this stage then both Pakistan and China are going to cover the vaccuum and Indian long term plans in Afghanistan will go for six.
10. US may like to keep its presence in Iran's backyard to keep an eye on its activities.
11. A stable nuclear Pakistan may not be appreciated by some corners in Washington DC and with chaos in Afghanistan, chances of complete stability in Pakistan are dim mainly due to the porous nature of Af-Pak region and the border.
Last but not the least Super Power needs to have bases and military presence around the world because it is the super power.