Pakistan has made the decision to keep Delhi out of Kabul: experts
Shares
But, US experts agree, Pakistan is unlikely to step up its support for the Haqqani extremist group and the Afghan Taliban if that would mean the collapse of the Kabul government and driving out US troops.
Instead, despite some of his more vainglorious rhetoric, Trump´s revamped strategy could lay the basis for dealing with Afghanistan as a long-term chronic problem rather than an imminent threat.
James Jeffrey, a fellow of the Washington Institute and former senior national security adviser to the George W. Bush White House, said: "There´s really no way to pressure Pakistan."
Pakistan has made the decision that keeping Kabul out of India´s orbit is more important that clamping down on cross-border militancy, and cutting aid would only be counterproductive, he argues.
Beyond Afghanistan, the United States has an interest in preventing Pakistan from going to war with India.
And, while the US footprint is smaller now that it was at the height of the occupation, its forces still need access to Pakistani supply lines and airspace.
"There´s really very little we can do," Jeffrey said. "To cut all aid or, even more dramatically, to start striking the Haqqani network and all that ... doesn´t guarantee that they´ll do what we say."
But Pakistan also has no interest in driving the United States out, and Jeffrey sees Monday´s speech as confirmation that Trump has come around to the idea of a strategy of "long-term containment."
"Other than the unfortunate reference to ´winning´ there -- that´s something that nobody can promise because no one can achieve it -- I think that this is basically sensible strategy," he said.
