WASHINGTON- Tillerson’s likely replacement is Mike Pompeo, who had been CIAdirector. With a spymaster — particularly one who strongly believes in anassertive CIA — expected to become America’s top diplomat, the Trumpadministration has once again demonstrated its desire to securitize USforeign policy. Pompeo’s arrival at Foggy Bottom would have majorimplications for the world, and particularly in the Afghanistan-Pakistanregion: One of the world’s most volatile areas, and home to a long andoft-forgotten American war.

Up to now, the Trump White House’s policies in Afghanistan and Pakistanhave largely been security-focused. Its strategy in Pakistan revolvesaround compelling Islamabad to crack down on terrorists on its soil whichthreaten US troops in Afghanistan. While Washington continues to oversee adevelopment assistance program in Pakistan, the administration has put mostnon-security initiatives on the backburner until it believes the terrorismproblem has been properly addressed.Meanwhile, the administration’s Afghanistan strategy is essentially amilitary strategy. It calls for US troops, working closely with Afghansecurity forces, to intensify battlefield pressure on Taliban fightersuntil they agree to participate in peace talks to end the war. The WhiteHouse has not announced any accompanying diplomatic strategy to help shoreup a weak and divided Afghan government; or, for that matter, to helpdevelop a broader plan for reconciliation with a Taliban insurgency thatthe administration, including most recently Defense Secretary James Mattis,admits cannot be defeated militarily.Since Pompeo enjoys a much better relationship with President Donald Trumpthan Tillerson did, there’s good reason to believe the new secretary ofstate will have as much influence on policy at state as he did at Langley.Pompeo’s recent track record suggests he will not only wholeheartedlysupport a security-focused approach to Afghanistan and Pakistan, but willalso call for this approach to be scaled up.

Nominee for secretary of state’s recent track record suggests he will notonly wholeheartedly support a security-focused approach to Afghanistan andPakistan, but will also call for this approach to be scaled up.

While at the CIA, Pompeo oversaw a shift in policy that entailed the CIAtaking a more active role in tracking down the Taliban. He is also astaunch supporter of drone strikes — long a US covert tactic of choice inPakistan — and has asked for more authorization to use them. There’s littlereason to believe he would oppose their expanded use in Pakistan — ameasure the administration has already considered adapting — to targetsenior Afghanistan-focused militants that Islamabad doesn’t take outitself.There are several implications from all this. First, with America’s topdiplomat endorsing highly undiplomatic measures in Pakistan — mainlyexpanded drone strikes but also, perhaps, the use of unilateral raids — thetense US-Pakistan relationship could face new tests. For now, Washingtonappears to be holding off on taking coercive steps against Pakistan: Apolicy of caution rooted in the fear that harsh measures could provokeIslamabad to shut down military supply routes on its soil, which would be abig blow to US war efforts in Afghanistan. However, if Pompeo continues tohave Trump’s ear, and if — as rumored — more moderating administrationvoices on South Asia policy, such as National Security Adviser H.R.McMaster, are replaced with hardliners, the calculus could change.Second, prospects for Taliban reconciliation in Afghanistan could grow evermore remote. While Pompeo supports reconciliation, his preference, muchlike the administration’s on the whole, is to fight now and talk later. Theidea of Pompeo authorizing the State Department to craft a comprehensiveplan to help Kabul launch a reconciliation process sounds ratherfar-fetched, even though, with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani havingrecently made a highly generous peace overture to the Taliban, there’snever been a better time for US diplomats to be fashioning such a plan.Instead, Pompeo will likely hope that a punishing military campaign —supported by robust CIA efforts — will compel the Taliban to give up afight that up to now it has remained steadfastly committed to waging.One might contend that, if the White House enjoys an inter-agency consensuson Afghanistan policy, with state, the Pentagon and the CIA all fully onboard with intensifying the battlefield fight, then strong will andcapacity can lead to success. The problem, of course, is that the sameconsensus was present during the height of the troop surge, when more than100,000 American soldiers were deployed to put the Taliban on the defensive— and failed. With fewer than 15,000 troops on the ground today, themission will be even more difficult.In effect, Pompeo’s arrival at the state department could exacerbate two ofWashington’s biggest challenges in South Asia: Improving its relationshipwith Pakistan, and finding ways to bring a never-ending war in Afghanistanto a desperately needed close. – Arab News