ISLAMABAD- Warfare has evolved far beyond the first generation; when it wasall about set pieces of lines and columns of armed soldiers. Today, thisfavourite past time of mankind is waged by frustrated non-state warriors,directing their rage against visible symbols of oppression and opulence,drawing visceral as well as vicarious pleasure out of their violence. Thirdgeneration warfare, which was waged between industrial age armies over landand resources was replaced by fourth generation warfare, waged by non-stateactors and asymmetric warriors employing terrorism as a tool to achievetheir political objectives. Fifth generation warfare is an interestingdevelopment, where non-state warriors fight nation states out of sheerfrustration without clear political objectives. According to a US ArmyMajor Shannon Beebe this kind of warfare would be motivated by frustrationthan any other material or ideological objective. US Marine Corps LtColonel Stanton writes in Marine Corps Gazette that the fifth generationwarfare is most likely to be prosecuted in “enclaves of deprivation” wherethe vortex of violence threatens peace and order.
Some of the areas mapped by these prophets of fifth generation warfare forfuture conflicts include Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East. Al-Qaeda,the Islamic State (IS), and other ideological warriors provide theideological anchors for the impromptu violence by these fifth generationwarriors. Poverty, economic deprivation, and political injustices breedfifth generation warriors, whose hatred emanates out of a feeling ofhopelessness and envy of the more affluent segments of humanity. Theislands of affluence surrounded by a sea of destitution will not remainsecure in their sanitized sanctums, enjoying a life of luxury and order.The frustration of the poor, hungry, and desperate masses will soon spillover into these bastions of stability, a reality more obvious today thanbefore in the shape of illegal immigration, crime, and violence by thedenizens of deprived states. According to a UN Human Development Report,1.8 percent of the global population owns 86 percent of the overall globalwealth.As per the 2013 Oxfam International Report, the richest one percentown 48 percent of the global wealth. The world is divided iniquitously intotwo groups. The first group comprises countries like the United States,Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Australia and Canada, whichhave13 percent of the world population and are appropriating 45 percent ofthe world’s income, based on Purchasing Power Parity, while the secondgroup that comprises 42 percent of the world population, includingcountries like India, Indonesia, and even China only possess nine percent.
While the world is a bigger template, the same income inequalities prevailwithin nations as well. The same spectre of relative deprivation withattendant risks stalks countries like Pakistan, where the global and thelocal risks coalesce into a lethal cocktail of social, economic, andpolitical deprivations fuelling intra-state conflicts. The characteristicsof fifth generation warfare would be the sudden and inexplicable eruptionof violence against the visible symbols of state strength such as lawenforcing agencies, communication infrastructure, public offices, bankingsources, and even the richer segments private property. Fifth generationwarfare emanates out of frustration, due to deep seated feelings ofpolitical and economic deprivation. The catalyst to violence could beforeign invasions, state oppression, and political injustices. The rise ofthe local claimants to spiritual and temporal power challenging state writthrough repudiation of the state’s political order like Mullah Fazlullah inthe past is an example of such catalysts. When a state fails to establishorder through effective governance, and also fails to provide economicjustice, fifth generation warfare is foisted upon it by the deprivedclasses.
Pakistan is already in the throes of this phenomenon, internally generatedand externally abetted. Like the resource curse of countries like Angolaand Congo, Pakistan’s geographical location is a curse. Instead of yieldingeconomic dividends it has caused constant meddling by global powers in itsinternal affairs. Faced with such constant supply of war fuel, the softstate model of governance by an illiberal democracy is a sure recipe ofchaos and disorder. When democratic traditions do not seep intoinstitutions like the legislature, executive, and judiciary the electoraldemocracy degenerates into a plutocracy where people get marginalized.Without inclusive and pluralistic governance with real political powerdevolved down to the local government level, the democratic project yieldsnothing but politics of patronage and pelf in the service of a predatoryelite. The enclaves of poverty and deprivation soon develop into cesspoolsof violent resistance against the perceived symbols of state oppression.Foreign elements fish freely in these turbid waters in pursuit of theirstrategic objectives, while the state continually withers away.
Like the resource curse of countries like Angola and Congo, Pakistan’sgeographical location is a curse. Instead of yielding economic dividends ithas caused constant meddling by global powers in its internal affairs
While CPEC and other regional alliances may offer a ray of hope,the fifthgeneration wars imposed upon Pakistan by forces inimical to the abovecannot be won through the present lackadaisical approach. This war can onlybe won through a steely national resolve, yoking military as well as civilcomponents of the national security strategy. The national securitystrategy of Pakistan must accord equal importance to military andnon-military components, with the military component targeting visiblethreats through kinetic means and the non-military component targeting theunderlying causes of frustration and violence through non-kinetic means.National Action Plan (NAP), which was a precipitate charter of Pakistan’santi-terrorism resolve has not been followed with the needed urgency andresolve. A holistic policy should address the underlying causes of violencerather than pruning the leaves and leaving roots untouched. It is time thestate understood that the causes of violence could only be removed throughimprovement in human security.
In order to counter fifth generation threats, one must identify them first.The threats not only emanate from religious extremism, but also frompolitical and economic deprivation amongst the ethnic communities inBalochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, and even in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.The lack of development, poor access to health and education, andjoblessness are generating frustrations that boil over into violent statedefiance. The MQM, under Altaf Hussain and the Baloch Liberation Front(BLF) under Allah Nazar Baloch were both culpable of violence rooted inthis politico-economic deprivation. The state thus has to gird its lions toaddress the economic and political injustices of all deprived communitiesthrough genuine political reforms that empower people at the local level.Infrastructural developments in communications, water supply,health, andeducation with focus on poverty alleviation should be the key planks of ournational security strategy. Zero tolerance for extremism and exploitationof people in the name of religion or ethnic particularism should be anotherkey plank of the strategy. Reform of antediluvian madrassah syllabi andtheir registration along with control of funding should be another bullthat the state has to take by the horns.
It is time the state called the bluff of the clerics exploiting the faithof gullible people to further their personal agendas. The state needs towrest back the control of the mosques from the clerics. If in Turkey,Malaysia, and UAE the mosques and Friday sermons could be regulated, whycan’t the same be done here? If we do not address the root causes and keepbaulking from genuine reforms, there is no hope. The fires of the fifthgeneration war lit by our internal contradictions and externalvulnerabilities can only be doused through a bold and multi-dimensionalnational security strategy, according due weightage to military andnon-military components sans which our CPEC dream willremain just a dream.
*Rashid Wali Janjua – The writer is a PhD scholar at NUST; e mailrwjanj@hotmail.com *