WASHINGTON – U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary JimMattis had to do some elaborate diplomatic two-steps during their swingacross the Indian subcontinent during the first week of September. And thatgoes way beyond simply being forced to deny that neither was the anonymousauthor of the stunning New York Times columndisclosing that senioradministration officials were “working diligently from within to frustrateparts of [Trump’s] agenda and his worst inclinations.”

Beyond the backdrop of reported tension over Trump’s mimicking of theaccent of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, there were the Gordian-likequestions of choosing the United States’ greatest friend between archneighbors, India and Pakistan; which of the two is the most effectivebulwark against Chinese expansion and Taliban militants, and which could bethe most reliable partner in trade and commerce.

The visit did not get off to a very auspicious start. Back in January,Trump accused Pakistan of rewarding past U.S. military assistance with“nothing but lies and deceit” by continuing to grant safe haven and supportto Taliban insurgents waging an unrelenting war against American forces inAfghanistan. Congress promptly withdrew $500 million in aid, then onSeptember 1, the Pentagon canceled another $300 million in militaryassistance, bringing the total to $800 million. A Pentagon spokesmanattributed the action to “a lack of Pakistani decisive actions in supportof the South Asia Strategy.”

But Pakistan installed a new prime minister, Imran Khan, in August, soPompeo felt it was worth a stab at a re-start. Hence his first stop, inIslamabad, to meet the onetime World Cup cricketer, who described himselfin Trumpian terms. “I have stepped on the field, and I am going to win,”Khan told Pompeo and General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefsof Staff. “A sportsman is always an optimist,” Khan explained. Afterwards,there was a cold dose of reality as Pompeo observed he’d enjoyed themeeting but there was “a long way to go” before military aid would startflowing again.

The problem is that right after this backslapping flyby, Pompeo went on toNew Delhi, where he was joined by Mattis, and where their clearlypreferential treatment of India set the scene for aggravated tensionsbetween India and Pakistan that certainly could not have made Khan’s hopesfor an accommodation easier for him domestically.

From the moment of their creation as independent countries 71 years ago,India and Pakistan have been at each other’s throats along their shared2,000-mile border. And with each now commanding substantial nucleararsenals, their rivalry is a critical element in Asia’s strategic equation.

The headline move by Pompeo and Mattis during their stop in India was thesigning of a major military communications accord, two decades in themaking, that provides for a real-time exchange of encrypted data on thesame military-grade communications equipment used by the American armedforces. The United States has only signed similar accords with fewer than30 countries.

The pact had been stalled largely on Indian fears that it would give theU.S. military access to a range of Indian strategic communications.

The timing of this breakthrough agreement, which also includes the firstjoint military exercises in 2019 between U.S. and Indian forces off theeastern coast of India, could hardly have been coincidental. Trump, withhis diatribe against Pakistani aid to the Taliban, had clearly thrown downa challenge that India was only too delighted to seize.

——————————

“India supports President Trump’s South Asia policy,” Indian Minister ofExternal Affairs Sushma Swaraj gushed at a press briefing after the talks.“His call for Pakistan to stop its policy of supporting cross-borderterrorism finds resonance with us.” In case anyone missed that point, sheadded that “the threat of terrorism emanating from Pakistan… has affectedIndia and the United states alike.”

But one key issue was left unresolved: India’s willingness to ignore U.S.sanctions against Russia and Iran. Indian officials are planning to buyfive advanced S-400 air-defense systems from Russia for $5.8 billion andwant to continue purchasing oil from Iran – a close and cheap provider of10 percent of the energy needs for India’s booming economy. Pompeo saidonly that talks are underway over the issue of waivers for both deals.

Indeed, if India bows to Washington’s pressure to cut ties with Russia, itis not impossible to envision Pakistan becoming a most attractivealternative for Kremlin largesse and closer ties than ever before. Already,Russia has stepped in quickly and agreed to train Pakistani militaryofficers in Russian military institutions. This on top of the $2 billionnatural gas pipeline Russia has built in Pakistan and is filling with LNGat increasingly attractive prices.

At the same time China, long a potent presence in Pakistan, is also doingits best to pull its neighbor even closer. The China-Pakistan EconomicCorridor has included substantial loans from Beijing to Islamabad since itsopening in 2013, reaching a level where Pompeo has said that any IMF aid toPakistan must not be used to repay Chinese debt.

The problem, of course, is that Trump’s clear tilt toward India will hardlyhalt Pakistan’s continued drift toward neighboring China and Russia.

What Trump wants from Pakistan is to ease off aid to the Taliban, weakeningtheir fighters enough to force them to a negotiating table and therebyenable the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan. But the reality isthat no matter how much Khan would love to see $800 million flowing againinto Pakistan’s coffers, he’ll face a hard battle to persuade his powerfulInter-Services Intelligence agency to crack down on entrenchedPakistan-based Taliban networks that share Islamic State’s hatred for India.

Trump must recognize that getting his way across the subcontinent couldbring down a fragile edifice, one that has been propped up by delicatepresidential balancing acts since the days of the Truman administration.-Reuters