NEW YORK: The current focus on North Korea’s growing arsenal obscures thefact that the most likely trigger for a nuclear exchange could be theconflict between India and Pakistan, the New York Times reported.
Long among the world’s most antagonistic neighbors, the two nations clashedagain last week before, fortunately, finding the good sense to de-escalate.The latest confrontation, the most serious between the two nations in morethan a decade, gave way to more normal pursuits like trade at a bordercrossing and sporadic cross-border shelling.
But this relative calm is not a solution. As long as India and Pakistanrefuse to deal with their core dispute — the future of Kashmir — they faceunpredictable, possibly terrifying, consequences.
The current crisis dates to Feb. 14, when a Kashmiri suicide bomber killedat least 40 Indian paramilitary officers in the deadliest attack in threedecades in the divided region that both nations have claimed sincepartition in 1947.
Last week, India sent warplanes into Pakistan for the first time in fivedecades. Pakistan counterattacked, leading to a dogfight in which at leastone Indian jet was shot down and a pilot was captured by the Pakistanis.
Prime Minister Imran Khan returned the pilot to India, in what was seen asa good-will gesture, called for talks and promised an investigation intothe bombing. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi took the opportunity toback off further escalation.
The situation could have easily escalated, given that the two countrieshave fought three wars over 70 years, maintain a near-constant state ofmilitary readiness along their border and have little formalgovernment-to-government dialogue.
Adding to the volatility, Narendra Modi, is waging a tough re-electioncampaign in which he has used anti-Pakistan talk to fuel Hindu nationalism.
The next confrontation might not end so calmly.
Without international pressure, a long-term solution is unlikely, and thethreat of nuclear war remains.
While the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations aggressively worked toensure that India-Pakistan confrontations in 1999, 2002 and 2008 did notspiral out of control, the Trump administration has done little but issue afew statements urging restraint. It’s hard to see a role as a mediator forMr. Trump.
A solution to a conflict that touches so many religious and nationalistnerves must ultimately come from within, through talks among India,Pakistan and the people of Kashmir.
The two countries have crossed into dangerous territory, with India andPakistan engaging in aerial duels. The next confrontation, or the one afterthat, could be far more unthinkable.