ISLAMABAD – On 28-30 January, the Institute for National Security Studies(INSS) held its 13th annual international conference entitled “StrategicAssessment for Israel: A Look at the Coming Decade.” INSS researcher,Retired Brig. General Dr Meir Elran, has shed light on Israel’s strategicgoals and outlined Israel’s vision of Russia’s role in the Middle Eastlink .
“War Games in the North” came as part of the INSS annual conference in theSmolarz Auditorium at Tel Aviv University with Israeli, American andRussian participants discussing various scenarios of a potentialdevelopment of a conflict in the Middle Eastlink , involving Israel, Lebanon,Syria, Hezbollah and Iran and global players – the United States and Russia.
The participants in the military simulation came to the conclusion that allof the actors of the hypothetical conflict – in which Israel initiatesattacks on Lebanon and Syria – would opt for de-escalation as no one isinterested in an all-out war.
One might ask whether the discussion indicates that Israel is bracing fornew conflict in the region given the US-Iran row over Quds Forcecommander’s assassination and Tehran’s subsequent retaliatory strike, aswell as Trump’s “deal of the century” that has already reverberated throughthe Arab world.
This is not the case, says retired Brig. General Dr Meir Elran, a seniorresearch fellow and head of the Homeland Security Program and a co-head ofthe Society-Military Program of INSS: whatever experts are discussing atINSS annual gatherings is not necessarily based on immediate events, hesays.
“Presently we have several main issues that we are concerned with”, DrElran stresses. “One of them of course is the situation in the north [ofIsrael], especially the attempts of Hezbollah with assistance of Iran toaccelerate the military buildup over there. The question is being asked inIsrael what we should do about this kind of military threat. And the otherone [issue], of course, is the Trump initiative which has been developingfor more than three years now but coincidentally was published exactly thesame date that the conference opened”.
The security expert elaborates that “what Israel is basically trying to dois to keep the status quo”: “This is the most important strategic goal asfar as Israel is concerned”, he adds.
“We are definitely not interested in any conflict and I think any conflictwill be detrimental to the interests of Israel. We are doing whatever ispossible to refrain from any major conflict”, Dr Elran says, referring toIsrael’s Campaign Between Wars (CBW) doctrine aimed at proactively delayingwars and deterring enemies by constantly weakening their force buildup.
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*How Israel Sees Russia’s Role in the Middle Eastlink*
While discussing a hypothetical conflict involving Israel, Lebanon andSyria the INSS panelists emphasised Russia’s role as key to de-escalatingthe situation given its working relations with the regional and externalplayers.
Though refraining from calling Russia a major peace guarantor in theregion, the retired brigadier general opines that Moscow is “being veryinvolved presently in the situation in Syria”, which imposes on Russiacertain “responsibilities” to prevent the Arab Republic from becoming abattleground for conflicts and hostilities between various state andnon-state actors.
Dr Elran notes that currently the situation in Syria does not correspond tothe basic interests of Israel given the presence of Iranians and theirproxies in the region, in close proximity to Israel’s northern border.
According to the Israelis, Tehran has used the war in Syria to create aland corridor from Iran to Lebanon through Iraq and Syria thus shorteningthe time and range for attacks on Israel. Tehran vehemently denies anymilitary buildup in the region saying that it has provided militaryconsulting services to the Syrians at the request of Damascus as part ofthe international fight against Daesh.
“We are facing very serious threats mostly posed to us by the Iranians andtheir proxies”, Dr Elran underscores. “The hostile environment betweenIsrael and Iran is something that is causing different kinds ofdevelopments mostly presently in the Syrian arena or the arena north ofIsrael. We see an Iranian incursion, enhancement of their interests andtheir presence in Syria as very threatening. We don’t like to see them asclose as they are in Syria and this is a thing that would be or should bediscussed and agreed upon by Israel and Russia because the relationsbetween Russia and Iran is also a complex issue and I think the Russianshave a major role to ensure that Iranians do not continue with theirefforts to escalate the situation in Syria and Lebanon”. – Sputnik
