ISLAMABAD – Media reportslinkthatin the Indian estimation there is ‘a 75 per cent chance’ of Pakistanexiting the Financial Action Task Force ‘grey list’ at the FATF plenary onFebruary 16 in Paris is a significant upgrade of the earlier expectation inDelhi that Islamabad was hanging on the abyss, perilously close to being’black-listed’ for money laundering and terror financing.
Quite obviously, it can no longer be kept from public view that the groundbeneath the feet of Indian diplomacy has been shifting in recent months,largely due to the US-Pakistan *rapprochement*.
Delhi is grudgingly making adjustments to the compelling reality.
True to form, the Indian media would prefer to attribute to China all goodthings that may happen to Pakistan — and, of course, to the US all goodthings that happen to India.
Thus, Delhi says the vast improvement in Pakistan’s FATF standing is due to’heavy lobbying by China and with the help of a private consultant who isan FATF veteran’.link
There is a mental block in acknowledging that Pakistan might indeed havemade efforts to improve its FATF standing.
The FATF is a technical body and comprises countries that have a mind oftheir own.
Greater realism is needed on the part of Delhi to admit that Pakistan’sstanding has been steadily improving in the 39-member grouping since theFATF’s 2015 statement which identified it as having made significantprogress in improving its regime and had noted that Islamabad hadestablished the legal and regulatory framework to meet its commitments inits action plan regarding the strategic deficiencies that the FATF hadpreviously identified.
The 2015 report decided to exempt Pakistan from the FATF’s monitoringprocess.
According to Pakistani media reports, in February 2018, the FATF had foundserious deficiencies in the country’s anti-money laundering and combatingfinancing of terrorism regimes and gave Pakistan a 27-point action plan toexit the grey list.
And in October last year, Pakistan was given another warning to show fullcompliance by the forthcoming plenary meeting in Paris in February.
The Pakistani reports claim that the sticking points have significantlynarrowed down to two areas, namely, cash couriers and convictions in terrorfinancing cases where Pakistan could still be deemed non-compliant,necessitating its continuance in the so-called ‘grey list’ for yet another3-6 months.
Significantly, Prime Minister Imran Khan personally took up the matter withUS President Donald J Trump at their meeting in Davos.
This cautious optimism was also reflected in the meeting in Islamabadlink (*external link*)between Interior Minister Ijaz Shah and the visiting USdelegation led by Alice Wells, acting assistant secretary of state wherethe latter ‘applauded the progress’ made by Pakistan ‘despite the scarcityof resources’.
The sea change in the situation around Pakistan has policy implications forIndia.
If the FATF lets Pakistan off the hook, which is to be expected, it wouldsignify a big boost to Pakistan’s standing in the fight against terrorism.
Delhi, on the other hand, loses the propaganda advantage.
The mellowing in the US attitude has already removed the cutting edge ofthe FATF pressure on Pakistan.
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Indian officials had thought that the FATF was like a Damocles’s swordhanging on Pakistan’s neck.
But now it dawns on them that chopping off the Pakistani head was not onthe American mind.
It may or may not be a coincidence that the softening of the US posture istaking place against the backdrop of the successful Afghan peacenegotiations where Pakistani help was of critical importance.
Clearly, a full-fledged resumption of US aid and investment in thePakistani economy in the period ahead cannot be held hostage by the FATFaffair.
A clearing of the deck is becoming necessary.
In President Trump’s evaluation link (*externallink*), the US has never been as close to Pakistan as it is today.
All this once again highlights that India and the US have never really beenon the same page in regard of terrorism.
The US stance is pragmatic while the Indian stance is dogmatic.
The US is realistic in making assessments regarding Pakistan’s record onterrorism while India focuses on coercive diplomacy.
India’s position on dialogue with Pakistan is becoming increasinglyuntenable.
Pakistan’s FATF moment highlights the Indian predicament.
Delhi is rejecting third-party mediation in Kashmir, but in the same breathalso vows not to bilaterally engage with Pakistan to resolve differencespeacefully through dialogue.
At this rate, India’s gripe about terrorism will be seen by theinternational community increasingly as a matter of irritable bowelsyndrome on account of its own body ailments.
However, the present government is perfectly pleased with the perpetuationof the enemy image of Pakistan which helps it to derive advantages indomestic politics especially during election time.
Pakistan is the favourite whipping boy of the ruling elite.
Equally, to borrow the famous line from President Trump, the ‘swamp’ won’tallow a policy rethink either — the swamp in Indraprastha is a protectedwetland; the Deep State breeds in it, spawns in it. – Reddit.com
