*By Hamid Khan Wazir*
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan: Dr. David Kilcullen, Professor of International andPolitical Studies at the UNSW in Canberra, Australia has expressed his fearthat the Taliban might attack police, Afghan National Army, and localgovernment workers in the coming days to cause unrest in Afghanistan.
Nevertheless, the Taliban are not capable enough to seize Kabul anytimesoon, however, the provincial capitals are under a great threat.
Dr. David Kilcullen emphasized that the US should try to maintain itsintelligence surveillance, and air defense system in Afghanistan even afterthe troops’ withdrawal.
He made these remarks while speaking at the quadrilateral webinar organizedby the Center for Research and Security Studies Islamabad.
The theme of the webinar was “The consequences of the US troops withdrawalthis year in terms of a potential civil war, the suffering of the Afghanpeople over the course of this war, and the most viable path forward.”
Other speakers included Dr. Michael Hannahan, Director of the University ofMassachusetts-Amherst (UMass-Amherst) Civic Institute, and a US foreignpolicy expert, Said Azam, author and Senior Afghan Journalist, MuzammilShinwari, Former Deputy Economic Minister, Afghanistan, and Imtiaz Gul,Executive Director, CRSS.
He suggested that China must continue playing a vital role in the regionafter the US withdrawal as they are working on massive development projectsin the immediate neighborhood of Afghanistan, i.e., Pakistan and Iran, andany instability in Afghanistan will impact them enormously.
Dr. Kilcullen further added that China’s role is anticipated to support andassist Afghans in securing their fundamental rights post US withdrawal.
Moreover, he stated that Australia has been committed to the Afghan causesince 2001 and has made significant efforts to counter terrorism and assistAfghanistan in various avenues.
Dr. Michael Hannahan from the United States highlighted the US citizens’obliviousness vis-à-vis US’ longest war.
He was of the view that US leaders and stakeholders failed to shape thepublic narrative about the war properly as they never explained why the USwas in Afghanistan, what did they accomplish, and why they are withdrawingnow? He further stated that after the announcement of the final date oftroop withdrawal, a debate has started about the US’ accomplishments in thelast two decades.
Highlighting the Afghans’ perspective, both Said Azam and Muzammil Shinwariexpressed hope that Afghanistan and its neighboring regional countries canturn the challenges posed to Afghanistan after US troops’ withdrawal intoopportunities of lasting peace and development.
Azam stated that despite the sufferings and plights of the Afghan people inthe last 2 decades, millions of Afghans got access to their fundamentalhuman rights including education, healthcare, and telecommunicationindustry. The economic, infrastructure, and human development in the last20 years has been remarkable and would not have been possible without theinternational community and the US’ continued assistance, the same trendshould continue in the future to achieve comprehensive peace anddevelopment.
However, he expressed his concerns over the Biden administration’s decisionof a complete troop withdrawal by September 2021 as the outcomes of theintra-afghan peace talks have not been finalized yet. He suggested that theUS should withdraw its troops only if the Intra-Afghan Peace dialogue isproperly in place and yields significant outputs.
Shinwari also stated that the international community should not play arole similar to the 1990s, when they abandoned Afghanistan completely andleft it on its own. If this happens, there are chances of a civil war,which will be bloodier than the one Afghanistan witnessed in the 1990s.
Moreover, he said that the narco-mafias, warlords, are the ones who benefitfrom the conflict the most after the troop withdrawal. He also urgedregional countries like Pakistan and Iran to play a significant role insustaining peace in Afghanistan after the US troops pull out.
Executive Director CRSS, Imtiaz Gul thanked the panelists for participatingin the virtual dialogue. He briefed the audience that significantchallenges such as deep divide and inequalities in the society lead tofundamental rights violations. He also stated that US and Europe’signorance towards the plight of the Afghans and Palestinians raise thequestion that why fundamental human rights do not matter to them?
He suggested that we should try to build on the positives and generatepressure at the civil society level to urge Afghan stakeholders to leavethe past behind and build on new narratives to ensure durable peace andstability in Afghanistan.
At the end of the dialogue, the panelists commended CRSS’ efforts forhighlighting this extremely important regional subject and invitingrelevant stakeholders from several regions to present their viewpoints.
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