The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank (WB) in a joint studytitled “Climate Risk Country Profile” for Pakistan have estimated thatPakistan is facing up to $3.8 billion in annual economic loss due toclimate change as temperatures are likely to witness an increase of up to2.5 degrees Celsius over the next two decades.

It findings have put Pakistan among the top risk-prune countries in termsof increase in average temperatures and resultant economic and sociallosses.

“Pakistan faces increases in average temperatures significantly above theglobal average with a potential rise of 1.3°C-4.9°C by the 2090s over the1986-2005 baseline,” the study said, noting that Pakistan faced “some ofthe highest disaster risk levels in the world, ranked 18 out of 191countries by the 2020 Inform Risk Index”.

The global average by 2080-99 is estimated at about 3.7°C under the highestemission estimates.Article continues after this advertisement

Projections also “suggest yield declines in many key food and cash crops,including cotton, wheat, sugarcane, maize, and rice”, while a rise in thefrequency and intensity of extreme climate events will increase disasterrisk, particularly for vulnerable poor and minority groups.

The study found that cities in Pakistan’s northern regions will be stronglyimpacted.

The study said that “changes should be seen in the context of theincreasing impact of the urban heat island effect, driven by urbanisation,and identified in cities such as Lahore and Peshawar”.