When the United States tried to seal a defense deal seven years ago withthe Maldives, a sprawling and strategic archipelago, its plans were quietlytorpedoed by a friend — India, which considers the Indian Ocean its sphereof influence.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will visit the Maldives this week aftertop-level talks in India — which offered open support when the Pentagonfinally went ahead with a defense pact with the island nation in September.
What brought about the change, analysts say, is a deepening concern in NewDelhi about China, which engaged in a deadly border clash with India thisyear and has been ramping up influence around South Asia, including in theMaldives.
Pompeo will also visit Sri Lanka — where China has lent billions ofdollars, leaving a mountain of debt — as well as Indonesia, as PresidentDonald Trump’s administration steps up its challenges to Beijing’s maritimeclaims in the dispute-rife South China Sea.
Pompeo, who has championed a hard line on Beijing, said his trip will”include discussions on how free nations can work together to thwartthreats posed by the Chinese Communist Party.”
– Moving ‘needle’ from China –
Pompeo will be the first US secretary of state since 2004 to visit theMaldives, which under the defense accord agreed to strengthen cooperationwith the United States and support a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”
“At another time, India might have complained about the US presence in theIndian Ocean. Today, it doesn’t want the US to leave,” said Tanvi Madan,director of The India Project at the Brookings Institution.
New Delhi has come around to seeing greater US involvement in India’sbackyard as offering a better alternative to China, she said.
“India recognizes that it can’t do it alone, either because of capacityissues or because it has baggage with the countries that affects what theywould be willing to do with India versus, say, Japan or the US.”
Sri Lanka’s populist president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, has embraced supportfrom China but will likely want to “play the game” of being courted bydifferent powers, said Aparna Pande, director of the HudsonInstitute’s Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia.
She doubted Sri Lanka would go the route of India’s historic rivalPakistan, which has forged tight relations with China.
New Delhi believes that if the United States gets more involved in SriLanka, “the needle will come a little closer to the US-India side than theChina side,” Pande said.
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– Priority even during election –
Pompeo will be joined by Defense Secretary Mark Esper in New Delhi onMonday and Tuesday for annual talks.
Officials said the two countries are expected to sign an agreement onsharing geospatial intelligence, paving the way for the United States toship increasingly sophisticated missile technology.
The United States has sold India more than $20 billion in weapons since theworld’s two largest democracies began to scale up relations in the 2000sbut New Delhi has also turned to historic partner Russia as well as Franceand Israel as it modernizes its military.
The “two-plus-two” dialogue, delayed because of the Covid-19 pandemic thathas ravaged both India and the United States, comes one week before USelections in which Trump is trailing Democrat Joe Biden in polls.
Pande said the timing showed India that the United States placed a highpriority on the relationship — and she doubted there would be significantchanges under Biden.
“I think Delhi is one of the few capitals which is not very worried” aboutswings in policy depending on the election, Pande said.
As US relations deteriorate with China, “which country would you want onyour side — one which borders China, is antagonistic to China, has lostterritory to China and has the potential to become a rival to China. That’sIndia.”
India has banned Chinese apps including TikTok but has voiced hope forstable relations with Beijing, even after 20 Indian troops and an unknownnumber of Chinese soldiers died in the June clash in the Himalayas.
When Indian officials hear the Trump administration, “I do think they wouldprefer it not to be so in-your-face at times, because they do take asubtler approach,” Madan said.
But she added: “They are very aware that there is a more competitiveAmerican view that converges with much of their view of China.” -APP/AFP
