With every deadlock in peace talks, such as the current one in Doha,Pakistan gets a chance to exhibit its influence on Afghan affairs. Surely,it can reason with the Taliban. Using this influence can also be positivefor Pakistan’s own international image and economic relations with theworld. We all hope the trip by high-ranking Afghan officials to Islamabadcan be utilized towards that end, unlocking the peace negotiations in Doha.
Over the past two decades, Afghan leaders have made numerous trips toPakistan in the pursuit of peace with the Taliban, which maintains rearbases there. President Karzai travelled to Pakistan 21 times to no avail.The current president, Ashraf Ghani, has travelled there as well, obtainingonly modest and temporary results.
What is different this time?
With President Donald Trump in the White House, one and a half decadesafter the arrival of US troops on Afghan soil, America decided to negotiatewith the Taliban. While America negotiated its own exit with an agreementfinally signed with the Taliban in Doha on February 29th, 2020, it alsocommitted to seeking a peaceful solution to the Afghan conflict throughintra-Afghan talks. For this to happen, the US sought help from Pakistan.Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and Foreign Minister Mr Qureishi haveboth said their government went to great lengths to bring the Taliban tothe negotiating table with representatives from the Afghan government.
Blame games aside, Pakistan has also been affected by the four decades’conflict in Afghanistan. It has welcomed up to 4 million Afghan refugeessince the time of the Soviet invasion. The war on terror in the region hashad its own imprint on radicalization in Pakistan. Pakistan wants anAfghanistan stable enough so the 1.5 million remaining refugees can returnhome, it also wants its neighbor to the west to not be too chummy withIndia, Pakistan’s archrival. To that end, Pakistan courts leaders who havebeen traditionally close to India during the former reign of the Taliban asit attempts to work a political settlement in Kabul where the Taliban couldbe part of a new governance structure. Pakistan wants to bring stability toAfghanistan but it wants to be sure that Afghanistan-Pakistan relationstake precedence over the Afghanistan-India relationship.
With the current peace talks ongoing in Doha (and currently in deadlock)Pakistan worries that internal spoilers supported by Pakistan’s foes (readIndia), might take the current Doha talks off course. Pakistan feels thecurrent round of talks are the best chance to potentially bring the Talibaninside the governance structure in Afghanistan. India sees the Taliban astoo close to Pakistan, for obvious reasons, and Iran plays a US-gamespoiler angle during the talks. Pakistan, however, sees the current talksultimately giving birth to the type of friendly government it has alwayswanted in Kabul. It is with such a friendly Afghan neighbor that Pakistanwould feel safe realizing its objective of economic and trade integrationwith Central Asia. In that case Pakistan could also bring a stable andresource-rich Afghanistan as an offering to the China Belt and Road schemewhich is going through Pakistan. Pakistan’s diplomacy machine is workingtowards the realization of that model.
Read Top Stories
What do the Afghans want? After 42 years of war, loss of life, familytragedies and destruction, the Afghan people want the end of hostilities.It wants good relations with Pakistan if this guarantees peace.
Most Afghans would welcome Pakistan’s unlocking the peace talks andcontributing to them with genuine intentions. After all, following thewithdrawal–or serious reduction–of US forces in Afghanistan, Afghanleaders understand that what counts most for a landlocked country is itsrelations with bordering neighbors.
By Professor Torek Farhadi, former adviser at the International MonetaryFund, The World Bank Group and the UN.
@TorekFarhadi
