WASHINGTON: The Taliban’s burgeoning financial might could make themilitant group immune to pressure from the international community as itnegotiates a role in postwar Afghanistan, according to a confidentialreport commissioned by NATO and obtained by RFE/RL.
The Taliban “has achieved, or is close to achieving, financial and militaryindependence,” a scenario that could allow the Sunni extremist group torenege on key commitments it has made under a U.S.-brokered peace planaimed at ending the 19-year war, the report warns.
“That financial independence enables the Afghan Taliban to self-fund itsinsurgency without the need for support from governments or citizens ofother countries,” says the report, based on interviews with senior Talibanoperatives, Afghan officials, and foreign experts.
“It also, arguably, provides insurance for the Taliban’s continuedrelationship with other listed terrorist groups, including [Al-Qaeda].”
The Taliban has expanded its financial power in recent years throughincreased profits from the illicit drug trade, illegal mining, and exports,the report says, estimating that the group earned a staggering $1.6 billionin its last financial year (ending in March 2020).
The Taliban’s growing monetary prowess has been overseen by Mullah MohammadYaqoob, the new and ambitious military chief who has taken over the group’sfinancing. The young Yaqoob, the son of the late Taliban spiritual leaderMullah Mohammad Omar, is also seeking to take over the leadership of theextremist group, the report says.
Mullah Yaqoob’s “aim is to achieve independence for the Afghan Taliban,that is, to exploit earning potential in regions under his military controlto enable him to operate without the need of outside financial, political,or military support,” the report says.
The report, written by researcher and journalist Lynne O’Donnell, cautionsthat the Taliban’s growing financial power could “put it beyond pressure tocomply with obligations to cut ties with [Al-Qaeda] and other terroristgroups.”
“Unless global action is taken, the Taliban will remain a hugely wealthyorganization, with a self-sustaining funding stream and outside supportfrom regional countries,” it warns.
“Its role as a destabilizing force, not only in South Asia but globally,will only be enhanced by the withdrawal of the United States from theAfghan theater, and its expected return to the power equation in Kabul.”
Although Mullah Yaqoob is believed by experts to support a peace deal, itis unclear what impact a leadership change atop the Taliban could have forthe peace process.
The report was completed before the start of formal peace talks between theTaliban and the Afghan government that began in the Gulf state of Qatar onSeptember 12.
The long-awaited negotiations are part of a landmark deal signed betweenthe United States and the Taliban in February.
Under the agreement, international forces will withdraw from Afghanistan byMay 2021 in exchange for counterterrorism guarantees from the Taliban,which pledged to negotiate a permanent cease-fire and power-sharing dealwith the Afghan government.
Expanding Sources Of Cash
Mullah Yaqoob was virtually unknown until 2015, when the Talibanacknowledged the death of his father, Mullah Omar, who had died more thantwo years earlier in Pakistan.
Since then, the ambitious Mullah Yaqoob has soared through the Taliban’sranks. He has consolidated power since his failed bid to succeed his fatherthat year, first becoming deputy leader before more recently being handedthe powerful post of military chief.
Significantly, Mullah Yaqoob has managed to secure control of most of theTaliban’s vast financial network, establishing a financial commission in2016 to maximize revenues and prop up his bid for leadership of the group.
Under Mullah Yaqoob’s leadership, the Taliban has “purposefully moved intoregions of Afghanistan with exploitable mineral resources and have beenable to build their finances, by their own admission, beyond theirexpectations,” the report says.
The key has been “refining taxation methods and building export marketsthrough relationships with wholesale and export businesses of an extensiverange of products, from coal and salt to precious stones including rubiesand emeralds.”
Since Mullah Yaqoob took control of the Taliban’s finances, the militantgroup has expanded its revenues from under $1 billion to $1.6 billion,according to the author’s interviews with three senior Taliban membersbased in Pakistan’s southwestern city of Quetta who are said to beintimately connected to the group’s financial commission.
A breakdown of revenues under Mullah Yaqoob’s control, provided by theTaliban members, shows that the militant group during the last financialyear earned some $464 million from mining, $416 million from drugs, $240million from foreign countries and individuals, another $240 million fromexports, $160 million from taxes, and $80 million from real estate.
The Taliban’s stated revenues of $1.6 billion corresponds with figuresprovided by the United Nations Security Council’s Sanctions Committee,which in May said the group’s earnings “range from $300 million to upwardsof $1.5 billion per annum.”
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The key to rising revenues has been profits from mining, growing from $35million in 2016 to $464 million in 2020, according to one of the Talibanmembers interviewed, who added that China and the United Arab Emirates werethe biggest buyers of the raw materials.
The illicit opium trade also remained a major source of revenue for theTaliban. Around 90 percent of the world’s heroin comes from the HelmandRiver valley, a Taliban stronghold in southern Afghanistan.
The Taliban taxes poppy farmers and is also involved in the trafficking ofnarcotics to neighboring countries, from where they end up in Europe andNorth America.
“Yaqoob’s efforts to control and expand the organization’s finances meanthat these plans can, according to officials close to him, be bankrolled tothe tune of almost $2 billion a year,” says the report.
External Support
Despite a billion-dollar business empire, the key to the Taliban’sinsurgency has been external support.
The confidential NATO report says Mullah Yaqoob is attempting to end thatdependency through financial self-sufficiency.
“The Taliban has developed its financing arrangements in order to become anindependent political and military entity,” says the report.
Pakistan, the Taliban’s main sponsor, has long been accused of shelteringand aiding the militants.
Pakistan’s ties to the Taliban date back to the 1990s, when it providedarms, training, and intelligence to the militants. Islamabad was one ofonly three countries to recognize the Taliban regime as the government ofAfghanistan.
After the regime’s fall in 2001, many Taliban leaders took refuge insidePakistan.
Observers say Pakistan sees the Taliban as an insurance policy for reachingits long-standing strategic goals in Afghanistan — installing apro-Pakistan government in Kabul and limiting the influence of itsarchrival India, which has close ties to Kabul.
Neighboring Iran has confirmed it has contacts with the Taliban but insiststhat they are for ensuring the safety of Iranian citizens in Afghanistanand encouraging peace talks.
But U.S. officials have accused Tehran of providing various support to theTaliban, an allegation it denies.
In a report released in November 2019, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency(DIA) said Iran provides financial, political, training, and materialsupport to the Taliban.
Russia said it has established contacts with the Taliban in recent yearsbecause of the common threat posed by the Islamic State (IS) militant groupin Afghanistan. But the United States has accused Russia of arming theTaliban, which it denies.
In the past two years, Moscow has hosted two international conferences onthe Afghan peace process, inviting Taliban leaders and Afghan oppositionmembers.
In July, U.S. media reported that a Russian military intelligence unit hadoffered secret bounties to the Taliban if it killed U.S. or NATO-membertroops in Afghanistan. Moscow and the Taliban have denied the reports,which were based on unconfirmed U.S. intelligence assessments.
Meanwhile, the Taliban receives significant funds from Pakistan, Iran, andseveral Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates,and Qatar.
A UN Security Council report from May 2018 said the “Gulf region alsoremains important to the Taliban as a location where drug revenue can belaundered” through a “network of individuals, companies, mosques andmadrasas, [and] various charitable foundations.”
Foreign funding provides a significant proportion of the Taliban’s revenueand could be “as much as $500 million a year,” the BBC reported in 2018. Itcited a 2008 “classified CIA report” as saying the Taliban received $106million from foreign sources, “in particular from the Gulf States.”
